Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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15z RAP shows 0.2+ qpf for both IAD and DCA by tomorrow. That's double from 03z. HRRR smaller uptick but noise-ish
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0z eps has a threat window around jan 20
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I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too.
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It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fast NS. Models at longer leads tend to underestimate the NS/pac jet. So while this is now showing a massive cutter, I'm curious if the NS wave will start coming out a little ahead to flatten out the flow and bring us more colder air before the wave ejects from the SW. That would give us snowier outcomes than the current runs are showing.
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My station snuck above 30 each day this week, which kinda surprised me a bit with all this snow cover. Tbf the wind stayed up and we didn’t have that high pressure overhead. Could also have been a downslope component.
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Looks good. 4-6 hours of light snow.
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Can’t believe it was 24 years ago. I remember it like yesterday. Yelling at the TV when the weatherman was saying “out to sea” while the radar right next to him was spreading due north.
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This one's yours, Bob. Enjoy!
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Still insistent on an inch around here.
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There were a lot of overrunning events, right? That's what the maps above look like to me
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I didn't see the movie. Carry on, guys
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I'm not even a dog owner, and this is a bit too much
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The smoothing is probably from averaging across analog matches above a certain confidence interval. Like taking rollforward maps of 10 different analog matches (for example) and then averaging them all together. Probably an oversimplification, but you get the idea.
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I checked the EPS weekly clusters for Jan 23-Feb 7 (sorry, can't share or I'll get in trouble), and 60% does have a pacific ridge, but with some extension northward into western AK, and some troughiness into the midwest and east. It's not as bad a look as we might expect. 40% is SE ridge.
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Let's close that little snow hole over my house, and we'll call it a deal.
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For those here who don't know or aren't sure (or need a reminder)... AIFS is deterministic AI model that uses the operational ECMWF as initial conditions. It is not an ensemble model, nor an ensemble member, which is pretty amazing since ensembles tend to perform better at long leads. AIFS might be picking out good "analogs" and extrapolating what happens after each analog as a composite, and doing an excellent job at that.
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Not so fast... I just saw a new trade wind plot and it appears that trades might want to push W of the dateline well into the eastern half of the MC. If this pans out, that will suppress convection over the MC and keep it westward into the IO (phases 2-3) with a little forcing over the eastern pacific. This is the kind of "split forcing" we've been getting almost the whole winter rather than the dreaded 4-5-6 warm phase forcing.
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This 6-10” storm we just had was a cutter and rain for us 10-ish days out.
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I’d take that.
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I was here for 2016 too but 1996 is king for those reasons. Plus there was that little clipper that dumped 3-5” before the second storm. Had similar snow depths as you did, and it was cold through and through the whole time. Oddly enough, I didn’t see any mixing with sleet during the lull, which only lasted a couple of hours. After the lull it was ripping with legit blizzard conditions.
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And school was closed for two full weeks. I thought the area measurements were low but don’t think we were wiping snow boards every 6 hours? I just measured 27-28” snow depth at the end of the storm
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It went down to -13 at Rochester when I went to college there. I made the stupid mistake of wiping snow off my car handle barehanded. It felt similar to putting my hand on a hot stove. Cold burns are real. Luckily it wasn't full on frostbite.
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I imagine a nice WSW-ENE overrunning event with that gradient pattern. Classic N/W suburbs event with i-95 riding the R/S/mix line
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We may get an appetizer on the 17th. Probably that clipper Ji mentioned
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Just dropped daughter off at preschool, which is open. Many side streets in the Ashburn area have not been treated or plowed, which is surprising.
