Terpeast

So we don’t have to pull an all nighter just to see the snowfall for once, how nice. I like my sleep

Would have me beating last winter with two weeks left in January

3-5” areawide all the way down to EZF-Calvert-Dover would be a massive win and morale booster

Erroneous output, most likely. Not a problem with 3k though. Hopefully they decomm the old nam and keep the 3k

3k nam 0.3” qpf area wide

If that lead wave over OH speeds up a bit and gives the main wave some breathing room, this could pop something on the surface

Well at least won’t melt as soon as the backedge appears on radar because it’ll be cold. Bro.

Euro has that dual band structure even with low qpf overall. The NW band will have higher ratios and produce more snowfall than depicted on 10:1 ratio maps.

if it makes you feel any better, I might be the one who gets stuck between the two. Especially if the storm shifts more NW than the GFS/NAM are saying

One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max. As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow. As Chill would say, just spitballing.

One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on.

Fits with the CWG forecast. Classic fall line

I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line)

Could be why LWX is hedging towards 0 for i-95 on the low end. I'm sure it's automated, but still... I'm not worried though

Spun the wheel and got less than last night's dusting. Bah

High ratio cold smoke on the gfs. Check the soundings

Big difference this time is we’re tracking another potential snow event instead of staring down an 80 degree day in January like last year

That is true, but when trying to retain snowcover till the next storm, it is annoying when it shoots up into the 40s. Funny, I didn’t think I’d say this in what looked like an incoming -enso -pdo +qbo torch of a winter where one of the top analogs was 22-23, where we couldn’t even get below freezing half of those nights!

It’s not as “locked in” for next week as it had been for Sunday. We have that going for us. Plenty of room for it to trend our way.

12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” Season total: 9.8”

Calling it 0.5” and done for the evening. Decent little event.

Light snow, 0.4” but not quite done yet. Might pull half an inch as expected, maybe a bit more

Looks like models are starting to converge onto a final solution, which might become clearer by Saturday morning.

Still coming down. Big flakes. Roads about to cave

I’m at 0.3” so far