Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Big difference this time is we’re tracking another potential snow event instead of staring down an 80 degree day in January like last year
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That is true, but when trying to retain snowcover till the next storm, it is annoying when it shoots up into the 40s. Funny, I didn’t think I’d say this in what looked like an incoming -enso -pdo +qbo torch of a winter where one of the top analogs was 22-23, where we couldn’t even get below freezing half of those nights!
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It’s not as “locked in” for next week as it had been for Sunday. We have that going for us. Plenty of room for it to trend our way.
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12/24: 0.1” 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.6” 1/11: 1.3” 1/16: 0.5” Season total: 9.8”
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Calling it 0.5” and done for the evening. Decent little event.
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Light snow, 0.4” but not quite done yet. Might pull half an inch as expected, maybe a bit more
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Looks like models are starting to converge onto a final solution, which might become clearer by Saturday morning.
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Still coming down. Big flakes. Roads about to cave
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I’m at 0.3” so far
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Jebwalked with my daughter, already 0.2” and big flakes coming down. Loving it
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Finally snowing
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Still nothing...
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Devil's advocate. One thing that might keep the NW trend to a minimum is the PV pressing SEward and less wave spacing between the sunday system and the preceding low. How far and how strongly the sfc flow is and the PV press is will determine the ultimate track. But if this cold PV is as strong as depicted, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to trend NW.
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Nothing yet, but hopefully soon
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That's funny. I gotta wonder though... my ambient station's temp really shoots up whenever the sun comes out, being 2-3 degrees warmer than other stations around me. But at night, it's on par with other stations. Do I need to calibrate it? Or was it just sited poorly?
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broke freezing, 34.5 for the high
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Seeing breaks through clouds, up to 31 now. Radar seems to be filling back in to the west.
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Can anyone post the >3in probability map for EPS just to compare with GEFS?
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All it means it leaves open the possibility for a weaker, late developing wave with less qpf.
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New GEFS cycle likely has some members riding the i-95 fall line with that distribution of max probabilities in our sub. It's a new sign that SE of DC will be sweating the r/s line on Sun-Mon. Take note.
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CMC a little closer to us with the second storm, but different time frame than the GFS. Still all over the place, best to lean on ensemble trends for now.
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Probably best to reserve judgement until the 12z Euro, but I'll pitch in anyway. The CMC/RGEM is probably the most amped/warmest scenario with the highest upside for snowfall totals N/W of i-95 especially near the blue ridge and MoCo/HoCo death band region. Not quite buying into it yet, but the GFS and ICON has trended closer to a more amped solution. For now, the latter camp is a more modest 2-4/3-5" scenario for all of the subforum including DC metro with little or no mixing/fall line issues. We'll see what the Euro says, and if the CMC trends a bit towards a "compromise".
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4" otg then 5-20 degrees for the next 2-3 days. Deep winter. I'll take.
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Am I the only one who holds his breath while squinting through the window to see if there are any pixie flakes falling?
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Coulda been that this round just floated over our heads and landed to the east of us
