Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Its past 11 and its only 26
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Excellent post. One thing I'm watching for wrt end of Jan into Feb is how the Alaska ridge evolves or trends. The GFS ensembles want to retrograde it SW to the Aleutians, causing the crazy warm SE ridge look. But the Euro ensembles have it split down the middle, 50% retrogrades it NW and makes a poleward ridging connection, keeping the cold across the CONUS. The other half is split between the GFS look and a compromise between the two (which is still "just cold enough" for us). The run-to-run trends are favorable so far, though. Definitely gonna keep an eye on this because it could open up more opportunities for a SECS/MECS in February.
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17.6 for the low
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Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week.
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Very slight dusting, enough to call it a trace
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Light snow but no dusting yet
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Flurries in ashburn. 28
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Haha don’t hold your breath
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I wouldn’t take AI too seriously when it comes to thermals. While they do pretty well at upper level verification, they actually do poorly with temps.
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Probably an erroneous thing. Might be gone next run
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I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do.
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I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges.
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AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow
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GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time.
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And here comes another s/w. Four corners at hr 150
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Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit
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18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon
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Like I said… Euro’s bazooka.
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Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day. hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north. And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that.
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Agree. Love what the 18z euro is showing. Looks like it’s loading up its bazooka and aiming it right at us.
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My mby station maxed at exactly 50 degrees today. Now 40 and dropping. On clear days, it is one of the lowest at night and one of the highest in full sun. that said, snowpack is still decent. 85-90% coverage with bare ground being south facing inclines.
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It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? (I’m actually gonna do the same…)
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34 with cloud cover, dews at only 22. If the cloud cover holds, the snowpack should hold, too. What's left after today will remain for the rest of the week.
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Pretty big changes. Lots to resolve yet. This is going to be one of those cases where models won’t have anything pinned down until inside 96 hours or so
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Low of 19 so far
