Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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So fun to get a FOLKS in here, whether it pans out or not!
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Usually we see 3/50 members WITH a hit, and that's when we get interested in tracking. But 47/50? Geez
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This is the best ensemble signal I have seen in a long time, if ever, for gulf/coastal low development at 9-10+ days out.
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High of 36, lower than forecast
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Don’t have much to add to the commentary about the ensemble snow means between feb 10 and 17. Big signal. But don’t have a well defined threat yet. It’s like blurry double vision from afar, and then as it gets closer, it’ll congeal into a single big threat and then maybe a smaller follow up that can’t be seen this far out. And that doesn’t even include what happens past the 17th, for which the euro weeklies have gotten colder.
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The only other case I can think of is 1972-73, which It had a more negative PDO than any other analogs.
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Stuck at 32
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Paging @Bob Chill
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Again, I’d rather be on the north side of a storm at range than riding the fall line. Like Aldie says
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Hard to tell with the main line because its so noisy. But the group of yellow lines show more forward progress in the new run
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Low of 19
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Great sign that major ensembles are beating the se ridge down while linking the scandi and AK ridges for -AO at the end My guess is that we flirt with the boundary for light mix/rain over the next 10 days, then we get colder
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0.53” so far have not recorded a 60 degree day this January. Average temp will finish 38/22 with a mean of 30F this month. Very decent
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There it is, come to papa That little vortex hugging the AK coast gonna ride over the ridge down into the middle US and dig… that’ll be our threat if this pans out verbatim
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I’ve found that phase 7 can be a precursor to big EC storms. You can see troughing off the west coast under the AK ridge, rolled forward it can set off a s/w progressing eastward and then move along the boundary in the east. That’s one way how we get the big ones.
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Agreed on feb 12-13th window, or should I say it gets colder after the 9th or 10th then we may have something to track there. At least based on today's ens runs
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I'm favoring warmer solutions for the week of feb 3-9 because the teles strongly point toward that. Which is why I'm not invested in the feb 6 threat. Still can change, but very very long shot there.
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Ens trying to poke that AK ridge just west, like eastern aleutians and western AK. This would work better than the AK ridge getting pushed to the Yukon
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Given that the pac jet keeps trending stronger as it gets closer in time, there’s a good chance that it will. Especially if the mjo is weaker/faster.
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High of 58. Thought I’d blow past 60 so a little surprised it stayed under
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One notable thing I'm seeing on modeling now is -EPO has trended stronger in the medium-long range, even compared to 0z/6z this morning. Something to watch for when the cold gets back far enough east instead of staying to the west.
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Yeah I'm looking at Feb 12-15 when we get into 7, which is a transitory phase that kicks off favorable storm tracks and -EPO should supply cold air to our side. How quickly we get there is the million dollar question. GEFS says slower, EPS says faster.
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it's close, but 850 low too far north. A good central PA hit. But still plenty of time. That week is supposed to be a warm week with MC convection firing, so I don't think there is much support for a wintry event that period. It'll come down to timing of cold air (if any)
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I was surprised, too. I wanted them to go for the jugular. Tbf though, it was 4th and 5 instead of 1-2. Quinn might have gotten gun shy for a second there.
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Massive EPO ridge even linking with the west coast ridge. Probably smoothing out some pac blocking
