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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I’ve found that phase 7 can be a precursor to big EC storms. You can see troughing off the west coast under the AK ridge, rolled forward it can set off a s/w progressing eastward and then move along the boundary in the east. That’s one way how we get the big ones.
  2. Terpeast
    Agreed on feb 12-13th window, or should I say it gets colder after the 9th or 10th then we may have something to track there. At least based on today's ens runs
  3. Terpeast
    I'm favoring warmer solutions for the week of feb 3-9 because the teles strongly point toward that. Which is why I'm not invested in the feb 6 threat. Still can change, but very very long shot there.
  4. Terpeast
    Ens trying to poke that AK ridge just west, like eastern aleutians and western AK. This would work better than the AK ridge getting pushed to the Yukon
  5. Terpeast
    Given that the pac jet keeps trending stronger as it gets closer in time, there’s a good chance that it will. Especially if the mjo is weaker/faster.
  6. Terpeast
    High of 58. Thought I’d blow past 60 so a little surprised it stayed under
  7. Terpeast
    One notable thing I'm seeing on modeling now is -EPO has trended stronger in the medium-long range, even compared to 0z/6z this morning. Something to watch for when the cold gets back far enough east instead of staying to the west.
  8. Terpeast
    Yeah I'm looking at Feb 12-15 when we get into 7, which is a transitory phase that kicks off favorable storm tracks and -EPO should supply cold air to our side. How quickly we get there is the million dollar question. GEFS says slower, EPS says faster.
  9. Terpeast
    it's close, but 850 low too far north. A good central PA hit. But still plenty of time. That week is supposed to be a warm week with MC convection firing, so I don't think there is much support for a wintry event that period. It'll come down to timing of cold air (if any)
  10. Terpeast
    I was surprised, too. I wanted them to go for the jugular. Tbf though, it was 4th and 5 instead of 1-2. Quinn might have gotten gun shy for a second there.
  11. Terpeast
    Massive EPO ridge even linking with the west coast ridge. Probably smoothing out some pac blocking
  12. Terpeast
    Disagree on priorities. We need a good strong defensive tackle to stop the run himself or draw double/triple teams so others can also stop the run or rush the passer. Get that position filled in first, then get a good corner and a safety, then shore up the OL.
  13. Terpeast
    20.1 another cold morning
  14. Terpeast
    +2 fail once again
  15. Terpeast
    Now we got a game!
  16. Terpeast
    It keeps shifting the AK ridge back and forth, which lowers confidence in gefs until it’s more consistent. I’d lean on the EPS anyway
  17. Terpeast
    If I were the ref, I would have overturned it. I didn’t see control of the ball there by the WR. It was assisted by the ground and the corner’s hand
  18. Terpeast
    Case in point, its not a catch but refs says it is after a booth review
  19. Terpeast
    Is KC really that good, or just incredibly lucky? Or both? I guess it also helps when the refs always makes calls in favor of KC
  20. Terpeast
    Rarely post in the panic room, but I just saw a flock of birds flying north in formation. Was thinking “so soon? Its like they already know”
  21. Terpeast
    Offseason priorities are painfully obvious
  22. Terpeast
    HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one. 12z 6z
  23. Terpeast
    Its gonna take a lot more shifting to make this one a hit. Not saying we’re out, but more of a long shot
  24. Terpeast
    Looks like a CAD event for our sub if the cold air holds like the 6z eps has trended towards as CAPE said above
  25. Terpeast
    Around 50% snowcover now. It was a good run.
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