Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Interestingly the least dewpoint depression beneath 650 mb is where the “warm” nose would be (note the quotes because I don’t think it goes above 0c)
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31/11
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Bullish, but we have a shot at that if the coastal gets us too
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I confirm this is the claw, and it’s coming for us all. Joking aside, what’s your bar for this event, folks? Mine is 8”. I reach that, I would be thrilled. Anything more than that is bonus.
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That plus 1-3” looks good. Would be 9-11” imby. Bring it
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High end potential 16-18”+ for DC metro. Low end is 4” area wide higher upside potential imho
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It phased. Insane signal by the ensembles!
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Verbatim yep. Pummeled
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33/7 should dip below freezing soon
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Finally got home after daughters playdate and doing some last minute shopping. I’m so STOKED for all of us in this subforum. This isn’t going to be a piecemeal storm for smaller portions of this forum like last year or Jan 2022. Everyone is going to get snow, most warning level or above. Majority of us will hit MECS (8”+) criteria, something we have been waiting for so so long. A few lucky ones will receive over a foot. Let’s reel this baby in!
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34/7 Final call (quick thoughts): Bumping up numbers for DC-annapolis-delmarva. 6-12” locally 15” somewhere ESE of DC. That’s along a 30-40 mile swath centered on i-66 + US 50. No longer worried about mixing imby. Mix line stops somewhere between EZF and dumfries, then retreats south as coastal takes over. 4-8” between south side of DC beltway and EZF, 2-4” mix south Along i-70 should still see 5-10”, then drop off to 3-6” along M/D line. Sorry if sloppy, am on mobile
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Looks like it went south by two rows of counties. Something to keep in mind, yes
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Busy morning with daughter’s playdate. I’ll try to sneak my final call before the 18z runs. I think DC metro + all suburbs will like it.
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If it really dumps, DCA might lose the snow board again
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LWX bumped up the top 10% potential accums. If 12z holds, I’ll bump up my forecast and make a final call
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Euro great run! Now I suggest resting up tonight and tomorrow as much as you can, because we won’t be getting much sleep tomorrow night through Monday.
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Now its only about 50 miles off from the other models. Which isn’t much.
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That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet)
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Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night
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H5 low closes off again
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Precip shield more robust for everyone here
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Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too edit: 3k thermals also a touch cooler at hrs 30-32
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Were they expecting to start with freezing rain and then later change over to snow?
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Now this is where I see us mixing, but in the end it shouldn’t matter much because rates are so light then
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Closed low at 500. If it passes over us, watch out
