Terpeast

Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow

See that vort energy pinwheeling across the south end of hudson bay? Could interact with the s/w when it gets closer

Good observation by clskinsfan, even the tiniest differences in confluence can create big shifts with snowfall. We’re talking about <50 mile shifts.

I think that’s right during the evening commute…

Right where we want it. It’ll shift north in a few days like the 1/6 system did

No, just one person at a time. I already blocked a few who came in here from the NY forum (not brooklyn, he’s good)

Check out this map @brooklynwx99 posted in the nyc forum: Notice the 18z euro is a bit faster with the s/w, allowing for more interaction with the tpv. Also notice the height lines press further south over the eastern lakes SE canada. I think this is why it’s colder and snowier for DC than the other 12z/18z models, and at the same time pushing the precip shield further north and east, allowing NJ/NYC to get in on some of the action. Something to monitor until game time. If we see this again at 0z, it’s probably onto something.

Nor over mine, but I’ve been looking past this one tbh

Just means our window of chances is getting extended

Still in the game for a MECS!

Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong)

I agree. For it to be sleet, it should nose out to -1

No real north trend, but possible dry slot then coastal enhancement on the backside. Too soon to nail down all the details where exactly these things are going to happen

GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78

I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro. haha , ninja'ed by NorthArlington101

What about it?

ICON is not even north. Just a few hours slower.

I think LWX is smart to call out potential for sleet/freezing rain because that will have bigger impacts on the Monday morning commute than an all snow event. Anytime we're flirting with the mix/changeover line, it has to be addressed and made known to the public.

I want to caution that this is just one run, and as a reminder, this is a global model that may not have the best resolution for working out the ptype details per soundings. The mesos will help us with that starting tomorrow afternoon-ish. If this holds, should be "mostly" snow for the DC/Balt metros.

might see some mixing when rates decrease upon dry slot, but that's really nbd

GFS soundings at both IAD and DCA show a nose between 750-825mb just touching 0 C. This should stay snow verbatim

Looks like a thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Hard to tell between 90 and 96 hr

Looks more like it closes off over Indiana, but with flatter ridging ahead under confluence that seems stronger and more south?

a stronger s/w (shortwave) with more confluence would create a stronger CAD situation, imho

I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room