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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    We better stop the south trend tonight though
  2. Terpeast
    Love that movie. Can’t watch it too many times
  3. Terpeast
    On my second beer, victory Merry Monkey. We’ll see if I make it through the pbp tonight haha
  4. Terpeast
    I’m gonna stay up just for @stormtracker’s pbp. It’s epic when done drunk
  5. Terpeast
    0.38” per my new weather station imby
  6. Terpeast
    Larry Cosgrove
  7. Terpeast
    Past 4 runs, GFS has been zig zagging between N and S. Maybe it's just trying to come in better focus.
  8. Terpeast
    I think the ICON is in error because no other model closes off a tiny low off baja and lets it just sit and spin. I'd regard it as a one-off, but monitor closely.
  9. Terpeast
    I think the cold being centered the W or SW is a good thing as opposed to it being right on top of us.
  10. Terpeast
    2902. Christmas present from wife
  11. Terpeast
    Subzero imby. We’ll see if my new ambient verifies. Hope it doesn’t break!
  12. Terpeast
    No real trend on the euro, this is noise at 6-7 days out
  13. Terpeast
    UKMET is on the other side of GFS, with Euro/ICON/CMC somewhere in the middle
  14. Terpeast
    I wouldn't react negatively to more confluence pushing this storm south. I would always leave the door open for a last minute north trend, so we're sitting right where we want to be sitting imho. There's always a chance that the first system off the coast is going to be overdone, and with an active NS, the 50/50 low might get pushed a bit to the east. It's trending stronger, sure, but I think there will be more progressiveness to it than what the models are depicting 6-7 days out.
  15. Terpeast
    Actually confluence is stronger on 6z. Look at the 540 line and vorticity pressing southward over MN & WI eastward through the great lakes.
  16. Terpeast
    Someone may see a dusting east of the mountains from this one. Not holding my breath for mby
  17. Terpeast
    Maybe but not necessarily. Confluence in front is a bit stronger 6z than 0z
  18. Terpeast
    CMC, Euro, and GFS runs today/tonight generally agree on the track. Not a cutter, but not overly suppressed either. The key player is “50/50” low and whether it moves/rotates a bit out of the way to give the s/w room to amplify, but not so far out that we don’t get confluence and therefore it cuts. The cutter risk is lower now, and we should be happy with a suppressed/sheared track this far out. Plenty of time for it to evolve.
  19. Terpeast
    CMC low to OH/WV then coastal transfer
  20. Terpeast
    CMC is trying to cut. Not sure it does, but it’s another possible solution besides the GFS.
  21. Terpeast
    Guys, don’t get too frustrated. We are very much still in the game. I rather see a more southern track than a cutter at this point.
  22. Terpeast
    Ironically a faster pac jet would help kick things to the east here, but not so much thay it cuts. Delicate balance, and models won’t get this pinned down until 4 days before the event. Still resolving the clipper, which seems to have trended stronger.
  23. Terpeast
    More confluence over the east. Much more than 18z
  24. Terpeast
    Less NS energy too
  25. Terpeast
    Trended colder in the midwest/plains 3 runs in a row per gfs.
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