Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Coming down at a good clip. Car top starting to cave
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Light snow falling
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I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).
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Saw flurries when dropping off my daughter at school. Enough for a trace. Right now nothing, but clouds to my NW look pretty dark and ready to unload. Radar looks clear that way though
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I see flakes/graupel on the top of my car. 33
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Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast.
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Ok i’d like this trend to continue for a few more days to a week before buying into this
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Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs
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Lets hope the wheels don't come off this one like last Feb.
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All we can glean from the above is that we'll be in mjo 7 by the end of the month. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
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Yes, I've been seeing efforts to create hybrid models where AI helps with data assimilation for initial conditions, and then the NWP physical models run them out forward. None of that is is public yet, but so far it seems promising and I'm sure we will see a lot of new stuff coming down the pike in 2025.
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Honestly I’m skeptical of this panning out as depicted, but we will see.
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Yeah, for 12/23-30 MC convection slowed down and increased in strength so naturally it would have corrected warmer for NA. I think that once MC convection dies down (and it will) cold will come back sometime in the first week of January. Just not sure how durable that will be, though. IOW, how long can we hold off MC reloading in mjo 4, for example. If at least 2 weeks, we’ll have some chances during prime climo.
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Did EPS show the same thing? It’s been doing better than GEFS with verification. Either way both models show AR building back and just about to reconnect the cold source. Timing is TBD, but they’ve been consistent.
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Other than the vodka cold in 94, I remember getting about 2” of fluffy snow on top of 3 inches of thick ice. My dad tried to drive his jeep up our driveway, he got only halfway up the hill and he slid all the way back down.
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Yeah I couldn’t book any major trips this year because I was going through some stuff earlier and now I just started my new job. But keeping an eye on canaan when it gets cold again, and I have the points saved up for another trip out west next year.
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Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5
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FWIW raindance thinks Jan will be warm and Feb cold for us. Normally I'd disregard, but he's been killing it for the last 8 years apparently.
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Yeah those warm ssts in the MC seems to have stalled the MJO or held it back, but I think we eventually get to 7. Not sure if we get into 8 at amplitude though
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It will be interesting to see if the wwb verifies along with weakening trades around the first of Jan.
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Judging from the 500mb vort, the gfs and icon aren’t that far off from each other. Icon is more negatively tilted and I think that’s what we need here.
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The Euro ensembles currently are a leader in 2-6 weeks lead times based on the verification scores I’m seeing. They handled the early season cold pattern the best as well as the November torch. So I’d give EPS a slight advantage over other models as of now. I wouldn’t sleep on the Graphcast though. Its been doing pretty well.
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Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to punt January. Ensembles/weeklies show the PNA ridge building back
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They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh
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Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV
