Terpeast

Modeling has been pretty erratic with long term patterns. Probably more useful to look at clustering like @donsutherland1 posted earlier.

I don’t see that. 25/26 is more likely to cut n/w. Or maybe I just haven’t seen the new run yet

I think we have one more shot at a wintry period sometime in Jan. Both ensembles have an EPAC WWB at the end of this month, and we’ll be crossing over into MJO 7 around the same time, and potentially 8 by mid-Jan. If the ensembles are correct about these, we should get a shot at some snow. Better than now because MC forcing wouldn’t be as unfavorable as it is now. But if we don’t produce in that next shot, we’re looking at another ratter because by Feb, the MJO probably is done with 8-1-2 or just reloads at 4. I was also thinking that this is a one-and-done winter where we get one decent snowfall and then that’s it. If we do get that shot.

So are you officially calling “TOD 12/14/24” on this winter?

I don't think he's looking at this from a negative point of view. If we do get another WWB by the end of this month, we'll be crossing into MJO 7 by then and the pattern may become even more favorable after the late-Dec/early-Jan warm up.

Yeah, central NC did get that dusting last week and we (DMV area) are still waiting.

Marketing for views and putting out a credible forecast are two very different things. Like oil and water.

Well he’s not wrong. Consider this, you say 3-3.5 months of winter. But with a nina-like -PDO pattern along with CC, each of those winter weeks are going to tilt warmer than colder. Say 60% warmer to 40% colder. That takes away 2 months of winter, leaving us with 1-1.5 months of “cold enough for snow” to work with… if that. That lines up with what EJ is saying.

Euro seems to like snow TV for east of 15 maybe I can log a fifth day of a trace

Yeah I was out of school a lot, but hurt myself falling on ice. Either way I don’t see this happening. Replay it now, precip will mostly be rain. Early-mid January could go either way… if the pac jet lets up a bit and allows the aleutian low to retrograde, we could get 2 week of cold. But if the trough sticks itself over AK, we torch like 2023.

Really not a fan of 93-94. We may have gotten a lot of record cold, but it really isn't a snowy pattern. Lots of mixed precip/ice with the baroclinic boundary more inland.

This Aleutian low had just formed only recently, so there’s not much of a track record for it verifying further east this season. What has been happening for a while is that the epo has been verifying lower than forecast, cold has been trending colder in shorter lead times, and the torch keeps getting delayed. But we can agree that December has been a volatile month and no one pattern has been locking into place. It may be correct to attribute that to the fast pacific jet.

Well, its December and an el nino longwave pattern for Decembers tend to be warm. i just hope that the mid-lat atmosphere doesn’t flip Nina in January and maintains a torch pattern the rest of the winter. That’s the worst case scenario

I see signs of the aleutian low retrograding at the end of the ensemble runs, meaning better cold source and potentially -epo. Too soon to make a call one way or another.

Ensembles show signs of aleutian low retrograding at the end of their runs, bringing more cold air back into our source regions (it’ll get mild locally for a bit)

If canada is gonna torch, I rather it be NW canada than SE canada

1972-73 stood out to me for last year (as the worst case scenario)

Very nice trend. I like how the ridge axis is shifting west as it comes forward in time.

Looks like +PNA decembers tend to roll into January and maintain a ridge out west?

So far I have had only 1 60+ degree day this December (the 8th).

Pretty close to that. 1.23” total

I think we just have higher expectations in the 6-10, 11-15 day range whereas we used to only look out to 5-7 days. I think the models today are better than even the euro used to be, but the lead times have gotten much longer.

The aleutian/GoA low is yet another surprise that many of us didn’t see coming this winter. I didn’t myself, but as I said before, this winter will find a way to throw us a couple of curveballs. We want to root for the GoA low to retrograde into the aleutians so that we can get a nice PNA to pop, and a negative epo to top it off. Worst case scenario? GoA low stays put, and then La Nina reasserts itself with MJO reloading 4-6 for a SE ridge. But I don’t think the GoA low is durable, and the jet should retract some.

Point taken. I’m actually glad to see this.

Yeah I was thinking about that thus morning. Yesterday we were barely into the low 40s for the high. Today we blew through the 50s to top out at 64 imby. No one was under 60 except near the bay or in the mountains.