Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes.
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Given the strongly negative -pdo, I think we want to root for a stronger mjo pass through 6-7 into 8-1 in order to break up the pac jet and induce some pacific blocking
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Personally I'm not rooting for a historic cold outbreak. I just want it cold enough to snow, even if only by a degree. Subzero cold? I worry about my pipes.
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Its been warm up there for so long, it’s gonna take a while for it to freeze over. And with the upcoming 500 pattern, i’m not sure it will by christmas. That being said, there will be plenty of snow cover from the looks of it.
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That would be a very long delay if 1.2 was behind this. It could be more due to the recent +AAM spike after Thanksgiving, even though it has waned a bit.
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36 for the high, coldest max so far. 26 now
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I know you were joking, but that strong aleutian low is definitely not la nina. Something else is driving this.
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All three main models are in good agreement on the broad strokes of this system. The little details can change, though. I don’t think any further changes will result in us getting any substantial snow.
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And the one winter that did have the coldest xmas day turned out to be a +8 torch for Jan/Feb
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Both extended Euro and GFS ensembles take the MJO to 7 by January. Euro has trended slightly stronger with the mjo wave, but still weaker than GEFS.
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We did get the coldest first week of december in 14 years. All other first-week decembers colder than this one are between 2002 and 2010.
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The ICON does this. Even better at 18z but only out to 120
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6z euro looks similar. 12z gfs has a flatter and further north trough
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Folks in my area and into Fairfax county reported seeing flakes/sleet at 5 am. But I was sleeping. By the time I woke up at 6:45, it was just wet. Possible I missed a dusting that melted within 10 min, but if I didn’t see it, it didn’t happen.
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Looks like some places got lucky with a dusting.
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Looks like wet, no dusting. 36/33
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Yeah, I’m thinking Feb torch. More interested in early Jan when the mjo gets out of the warm phases.
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Well south, but boundary is also south. Enough cold air for frozen. Not going to take much for it to pop. It’s so close.
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Covered this in my outlook. We may have some SE ridging, but unlike the last 2 years Canada is unlikely to be torched so cold air source should be nearby for most of the winter.
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I think the other way around. By Feb the mjo will be back into the warm phases and has historically been a torch month in a nina.
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Green and yellow returns went over me, and I don’t think I saw anything falling. probably virga here. 41/22
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Didn’t see anything, but I didn’t go outside.
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Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability.
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Exactly. This cold period came as a surprise for most. I think there will be a few more surprises (more variability) this winter. We just need to time something perfectly or extend one of these cold periods long enough for something to happen.
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Yep, its something to track then we take a break until around Dec 20-23 or so.
