Terpeast

I don’t either, but to me that’s now the worst case scenario.

GEPS/EPS still has a signal for Dec 3-7, with maybe a clipper on Dec 2. GEFS looks totally dry. Still far out, so its probably noise. Ens haven’t budged on the cold.

I’m with bluewave on this one. After watching the entire NA continent experience its warmest fall in ages, on top of the warmest winter on record last year, we’re not gonna have much snow cover to start with. Soil temps are going to be warm. The positive takeaway from this is that a cold pattern is taking place early on, allowing time for more snow cover to get laid down over Canada and central US, which will help produce more local sources of cold air, which will only help the East through the rest of the winter. I’m just hoping we don’t get another 89-90 scenario where December gets cold, and then it completely flips warm and stays that way through Jan-Feb. I think there will be more variability than that.

Nice work. I’m on the same page. It’s tempting to say something like the winter pattern remembers the late Nov pattern, but I don’t think we see another 2013-14. I also think the chance of a total ratter has gone down a bit.

Honestly I don’t think you have much to worry about. I’m more interested in what happens after.

For Dec 3-7, GEPS still shows a signal for a coastal with plenty of cold, and EPS to a lesser extent. GEFS not picking anything up yet. Haven’t bought in for the Thanksgiving storm. I’m almost certain it will be rain for just about everyone except interior NE. Not cold enough yet.

Yeah either I was in a precip hole or the pws rain gauge undermeasured

45 now. Got 0.12” yesterday which was surprisingly little.

That’s the wave I have an eye on. GEPS had it on 0/12z

Southern slider just misses us on Nov 30. It’s close. At d8 its very close…

I don't think I've seen an MJO RMM forecast that shows it dying into COD from the warm phases in the last few years. Usually it gets even stronger as it goes through the MC. I hope this is right.

The counterclockwise rotation of this low is nuts

Time for a December thread. GEFS/GEPS starting to show a potential coastal Dec 5-7 time frame with cold still hanging around. I should add that the canadian is more aggressive with the signal that time frame, the gefs or eps not so much.

Switched over to rain. 36/34

Thats pretty amazing, you're really not that far from me as the crow flies.

Still light snow, temp dropped to 35.8. Expectations met. Now we just need to make sure PSU gets his inch.

Flake size increasing, nice snow globe now in Ashburn

Been SN- for at least half an hour. A little bit of stickage on the car top, officially calling it a T. 36/32

Wind blown light snow. I'm getting the snow TV I wanted

First flurries here now. 36/28

Nothing yet...

Should be soon for me. 37/27

Cloudying up now. Should see something falling within the hour

Sunny here, but with cloud deck just to the north. 34

Was out to the store with my daughter. In the parking lot, she said “it’s snowing!!!” Me: “no it’s not, it’s just raining” Her: “yes it is snowing! Look!” Me: *looks closely* “oh….” it was more like sleet/graupel… but i’ll give her the obs win