Terpeast
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
Terpeast replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Good post. When these things happen, I tend to look for spatial areas where models (and individual runs) are more in agreement with each other. In this example, I see better agreement on warmth over the western US, implying a western ridge. The contradictory forecasts over the east may just indicate greater variability and/or higher uncertainty. -
I think those 30+ ssts run deep, but even temporary sfc cooling will open some windows where MC forcing isn’t dominating everything
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Probably some temporary cooling in the warm pool due to ongoing convection in that area
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True, good point. Looks really noisy. In that situation we’re probably better off looking at the hollmover charts, but I’m skeptical of a standing wave longer than 1-2 weeks because even strong tropical convection is almost always self-limiting. It will either weaken or move.
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TT doesn’t show that. Can you post a map?
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I think for now the models might be latching into the warm pool bias due to persistency, but not sure it will stay that way forever (despite what snowman might be shouting from his rooftop). I think this winter will find a way to surprise us.
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Lock it in
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Previously the GEFS had it stronger going into 7, but now weaker lime the EPS?
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I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro
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It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes.
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Given the strongly negative -pdo, I think we want to root for a stronger mjo pass through 6-7 into 8-1 in order to break up the pac jet and induce some pacific blocking
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Personally I'm not rooting for a historic cold outbreak. I just want it cold enough to snow, even if only by a degree. Subzero cold? I worry about my pipes.
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Its been warm up there for so long, it’s gonna take a while for it to freeze over. And with the upcoming 500 pattern, i’m not sure it will by christmas. That being said, there will be plenty of snow cover from the looks of it.
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That would be a very long delay if 1.2 was behind this. It could be more due to the recent +AAM spike after Thanksgiving, even though it has waned a bit.
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36 for the high, coldest max so far. 26 now
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I know you were joking, but that strong aleutian low is definitely not la nina. Something else is driving this.
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All three main models are in good agreement on the broad strokes of this system. The little details can change, though. I don’t think any further changes will result in us getting any substantial snow.
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And the one winter that did have the coldest xmas day turned out to be a +8 torch for Jan/Feb
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Both extended Euro and GFS ensembles take the MJO to 7 by January. Euro has trended slightly stronger with the mjo wave, but still weaker than GEFS.
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We did get the coldest first week of december in 14 years. All other first-week decembers colder than this one are between 2002 and 2010.
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The ICON does this. Even better at 18z but only out to 120
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6z euro looks similar. 12z gfs has a flatter and further north trough
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Folks in my area and into Fairfax county reported seeing flakes/sleet at 5 am. But I was sleeping. By the time I woke up at 6:45, it was just wet. Possible I missed a dusting that melted within 10 min, but if I didn’t see it, it didn’t happen.
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Looks like some places got lucky with a dusting.
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Looks like wet, no dusting. 36/33
