Terpeast

All ens show a trough digging into the OH valley, which is a decent signal for a storm that might bring us snow in the dec 10-12 timeframe (12z gfs op shows this playing out) 0z EPS shows that too, look at the height lines even if the 500mb anomaly colors show neutral.

Sprinkles. 41. Think if my elev was a few hundred feet higher, I’d have seen some wet flakes

Yep. Our dec climo is like 2” total for the entire month.

At least we’re seeing clippers making a comeback. Something we haven’t seen in years. And with the PV lurking nearby up top, it’s possible that these may trend south at the last minute, like those two storms last January did.

While we can’t take the rmm forecast amplitude literally, I still think rmm forecasts have some utility where we look at multiple models/ens and look at what phases they think the mjo will be in and how quickly or slowly they cycle through. The spread gives a good idea of the uncertainty of the amplitude, which can be really noisy. Even in noisy amplitude predictions, we can get a good idea of where the mjo is going to be, phase wise, in a week or two ahead of time.

29.8 for the low. Now 36

We’d want that trough to either be centered over bering sea or undercut the aleutians. Either would work in getting a west coast ridge

GEFS is similar, almost identical

Trades may kick up a bit so we may get more of a nina signal, but still don’t think we’ll reach -0.5 ONI for an official nina. Maybe barely. So there will be other competing factors, with lots of variability and back-and-forths. Still think we moderate mid-dec, then turn back cold late dec early jan.

With those ssts being so warm, I don’t buy it… yet. But if this 4-6 pass trends weaker, the models may soon react to that and trend colder for the east. ETA both gfs and euro weeklies put the mjo at the end of phase 7 around last week of december, with varying levels of strength

45 and wet. The only thing that’s getting torched is the turkey in the oven. Happy thanksgiving!

If models are correct on a moderating trend end of second week of Dec, this coincides with MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. My thinking is second half of Dec will be mild, NN to somewhat AN for the east until MJO goes into 7 and 8 sometime late dec or early jan, and that’s the next period I’m interested in. We should have more cold air to work with since Canada is almost entirely snow-covered.

That would be the second time in this calendar year

This coincides with the MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. We may moderate back to NN or somewhat AN for a period of time around the 12th or so, but things may get interesting again once we get to 7/8 (maybe late dec or early jan) with a colder airmass the second time around. Still watching the clippers and the 12/8-10 window.

12z EPS shows the same thing. Less intense than GEPS, but we can work with that.

I see it too, its been on the models for a while. And more than one clipper too. TBD whether the precip makes it over the mountains and gives us some light snow.

Low of 33.6

Right where we want it?

I’m seeing the l/w pattern as more of a clippers/LES pattern. We’ve had plenty of that in the past before the 2010s onward, and while it got cold it wasn’t that easy to get snow. But we’ll see whether there’s a well timed s/w that digs enough to give us a snowstorm. Far too early to tell, but so far we have dec 1-2 and dec 5-8 windows to track. It may be similar to this past Jan where we did not see those 2 minor storms coming until they were starting to dig east of the rockies, and the models kept trending south until they were right on our doorstep.

IIRC the GEFS has always had a flatter pna ridge than the other models. GEPS the tallest/strongest, which gives us more cold but also more suppression risk

11/21: T (brief graupel) 11/22: T (non accum snow showers that lasted a few hours)

Low of 31.5

Except for the mountains, the qpf maps are almost the inverse of each other! Good test for the models and seeing which ones to trust more when we track the real stuff.

That’s crazy cold!

Yeah I picked up on that one too, I referred to it as the dec 2 clipper, but timing and wave characteristics will probably change