Terpeast

Musta been gnarly

Going by radar, Helene appears to have made a jog east moreso than the nhc forecast track. Maybe nothing, maybe something

Except for the storm surge in the immediate coast. But other than that, I agree

1.56” overnight

Looking ominous, especially that 12+ storm surge and high flood risk in the southern apps. Stay safe @WxWatcher007

For what it's worth, all ensembles (gfs, eps, cmc) point to October 2021 as a top analog in the 6-10/11-15 day forecasts at least in yesterday's 12z run. We'll see if this holds though, as bluewave said this is a volatile pattern especially in terms of the polar domain.

Good link, but what you said in bolded implies that low arctic ice is causing multityear ninas. That’s not what the paper is saying at all - if anything, they’re showing evidence that points to the other way around, multiyear ninas causing lower sea ice by changing the mid-lat circulation via forcing. Be careful with interpreting your sources. edit: I had it flipped in the first sentence. Now corrected

That plot makes more sense, thanks. It’s as though the 1950s was more like the 1990s, both being pretty warm decades. But now, we have way overshot both.

Its amazing how warm the 1950s were there, or at least depicted in the graph just before that gap. I wonder about the accuracy and/or warm bias (if any) for those records taken then. If accurate, wonder what drove the warmth then and there.

Makes sense if a -nao october is going to happen, unless the SE ridge links up with it. In which case the cold might not make it that far east. But up towards the great lakes, the likelihood is much higher.

Only added 0.07” since my last morning report

Event total 0.97 so far

Well, we thought a cold and active february was a lock even the last week of jan this year. Models were showing it for months. Then it slipped away at the last minute. You never know.

For a week in a row, CFS has shows February, not December to be the best winter month. Skeptical because it goes against the nina grain and what we’ve seen in the last several winters. Precip pattern shows a coastal track, too. Not particularly putting any weight on this, just not much more than a “hmm” moment.

Good. Still in a hole precip wise on the year.

Curious if the colder Feb is a reflection of a weaker Nina or cold neutral, as opposed to a stronger event?

With that record-breaking 500mb low over CA, one might think that a scenario with a stronger ridge over Canada would be more likely. But we shall see. I have no idea what will happen

Agree it is a statistical fluke. We had that Dec 2009 blizzard as well. In a -enso -pdo year like this, we need to score in that window to get something we wouldn’t look back on as a ratter.

It wouldn’t actually surprise me if December turned out to be our best winter month this year. The hope I hold onto is that it hangs on through part of January allowing us to get in on some action. October will tell us a lot more about where this thing is headed. @psuhoffman Have a great trip!

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here.

Like Tip said, I suspect that non linear effects are involved. If just “adding” these effects together along with CO2 wasn’t enough to explain the global temp spike, then either something else is going on and we missed it (unlikely)… or the combination of these effects isn’t additive but rather multiplicative or heaven forbid, exponential.

Monster torch coming to central/eastern Canada through mid late month

45 so far

A degree C AN doesn’t sound too bad, but I wonder if NMME underestimates the magnitude of temp anomalies where the core of each anomaly is centered. Feels like I’ve seen this two winters in a row.

48 for the low. First 40s of the year, seems pretty early