Terpeast

You’ll be back. See you soon

That’s actually a reasonable outlook. Cold & mild in the right places for a La Nina winter and/or -PDO regime though i would lean much drier across the south and EC

Yeah, i see a warm blob moving east from that marine heatwave into the GoA / west NA coast. Winter 24-25 looks ugly af but would be happy to get a 1-2 week period of wintry weather in either Jan or Feb, most likely Jan. Feb will probably torch

Low of 61. Splendid morning out there!

We went to the greenbriar lake NW of frederick. We picked a perfect day to go… 70s, cool, no humidity, no mosquitoes, and the water was nice to swim as in not cold because of the June-July wave. So many people came, they cut off access to the park by 10 am… we got there at 9:55, so lucky

Man its steamy out right now. Lower humidity can’t come this weekend fast enough

2.5” total for the event

2.3” since Wed

I am starting to think that the difference between ONI and RONI should be a factor in and of itself when thinking about seasonal outlooks. I don’t think that we had a 0.6 difference in ONI vs RONI for 86-87 and 09-10…

2.09” on the day so far. Radar shows blob passed through, but that is probably deceptive. Individual cells trying to form out of thin air after the main blob. Particularly concerned about overnight tor threat.

Was pulling for you man

Now winding down a bit in intensity. That was a great round of steady heavy rain, will update as soon as my nearest pws updates its qpf. looks like the tornadic stuff missed me to the SW and W

Pouring now

Big batch on my doorstep, hopefully I stay inside the eastern edge of it. but I’ll pass on the tornadoes

1.41" so far today

It would probably have turned out to be a snowy winter too had the Japan marine heat wave abated enough and the PDO more neutral or on the positive side. While it was our best chance for a snowy winter in years, there was indeed a 1972-73 flavor given how negative the PDO was and the ENSO-induced SE trough was more tilted to the west giving California all these atmospheric rivers and historic mountain snows. I noticed 72-73 and mentioned it in my winter outlook, but didn’t want to emphasize it too much because well… that would’ve been a disaster. At least we avoided a total shutout thanks to that January -EPO block.

0.43” since last night. I’d be content with a total of 3” by saturday. The mountains and shen valley need it more.

If it goes that cold, roni will be strong nina

Looks like today isn’t in the cards for mby, hopefully get in the game tomorrow

I’d still take it

I hope the ICON is wrong

I drove through this storm. Turned off 50 onto 606 north on the west side of the airport. That’s when it started. White knuckled it home to ashburn - couldn’t see a damn thing on the road. Car was shaking in that wind. My wife was terrified Thank goodness we got home ok

And mby also hits 100

I see IAD hit 100. 98 imby

I’m a little over 3 inches behind you. 24.6” on the year, but more than half of it was from Jan-Mar.