Terpeast

0.33” overnight

98 imby. HI 107. Doesn't feel that hot, maybe I'm used to it now Umm no, I’ll take that back. It is HOT

High of 96 today. Humid

Haha well mby has been suffering as much as many of us west of 95. Haven’t mowed the grass in 2 months, and my county is talking water restrictions if things don’t improve soon. Only last night I lucked out for once.

Picked up another 0.62” with that second round. Flush hit… finally! Total 1.06”

Another cell incoming just as i go to bed. Will check precip totals in the morning

Got 0.44” from that cell which consolidated over me (Ashburn) into MoCo. Nice one to end a relatively hot and dry month.

Yep, good downpour with gusty winds. Much needed. looks like an efficient rain producer

Line starting to gel a bit as it approaches mby from the SW, hope it holds enough for at least 0.3”

Went up to 96 today

True, and also true about the south based blocks linking up with the SE ridge - that’s a pretty new phenomenon. I personally like numerical index values only because they’re easier to analyze in Excel or run a machine learning model on (one of my ongoing side projects btw). Not easy to do that with spatial 500mb maps, but it’s important to use those maps to validate any conclusion drawn from analysis using numerical indices. I’m also realizing that the NAO shouldn’t even be looked at in isolation, but in combination with the AO and other indices. The deviation of the AO from the NAO in and of itself should be a clue that something amiss is going on.

Good point about looking at 500mb instead of raw index values (always a great reminder). Those 4-5 bouts of -NAO you mention, how many happened specifically in January or February? Pretty sure it’s slim pickings other than Jan 2021. We did get a brief episode this January that resulted in 10 days of winter, but it got washed out by the rest of the month that brought about record warmth in the MA.

93.7 here

I also consider 2022-23 a +NAO winter overall: 2022 12 -0.1456 2023 1 1.2503 2023 2 0.9227 2023 3 -1.1088 Yes, the average is only +0.23 which may have some believe it a neutral NAO winter. But the -NAO episodes, while strong, happened on the shoulder months when, in terms of snowfall, may have helped a lot more had they occurred during mid-winter months Jan or Feb or both. In other words, if we’re looking at yet another +NAO/-ENSO winter, give me just one -NAO month and don’t wait until mid March to do it.

The TL,DR is that there’s some uncertainty in how strong the la nina is gonna get. Models have backed away from its strength lately. But the PDO is still very negative and will remain so through winter, so enso may not even matter much for us here

Actually up to 2.17” on the month. Slowly getting better, but June put me in a deep hole that’s going to take a lot to climb out of.

0.41”. I’ll take it!

0.04”

Sneaky heat. Quietly creeped up to 92 today. Humid

0.05”. RIP

Radar looks sparse today. We can’t nickel and dime our way out of this drought.

I know this is just skin temps, but that cool area breaking up the marine heat wave is interesting - west of Hawaii starting 20N at on NEward. Was there a recent storm along that way?

Topping out at 93 so far

Back edge approaching, lets see how long the precip holds

Much lighter precip than radar would have you believe. Probably lots of dry air layered up aloft