Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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99.3 so far. Getting close to 100, but may fall a bit short. HI is another story. Max 113 edit: spoke about 5 minutes too soon. Hit 100 just now
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98, HI 111 Best upgrade to a heat warning westward to rt 15 and eastward
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If this drought doesn’t abate soon, we should start getting concerned about wild fires especially in down-sloping conditions.
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92/76, HI 105. Already touched 94 for the high
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Did someone throw a bucket of water on the temperature sensor?
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Without any decent analogs in the running, and in a warming world with off the charts marine heat waves off Japan, I’m thinking that maybe the analog strategy isn’t the most ideal one to apply for this coming year. Maybe raindance is onto something with his alternative strategy. I’m just not familiar how to apply this in practice.
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The “flavor” of this summer has already revealed itself. It’s gonna be a long, hot and dry one. This morning’s LWX AFD if you read to the end: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging is forecast to persist over the northwest Atlantic Ocean while broad troughing slowly drifts east over the central CONUS much of next week. This pattern results in several weak surface fronts drifting into the area and washing out, with daily low-end chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Without a more obvious large scale feature, the prospects for any widespread drought busting rainfall look rather slim.
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0.08”
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That describes mby as well.
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Yeah, that's true. While last winter was the best chance for an east coast KU, it was also the best chance for a 72-73 repeat. It just so happened that the latter did happen, except with a different monthly flavor. I agree with you in that I wouldn't say that last year's nino was acting only like a moderate. It was strong, and it showed in the STJ. The only time the STJ weakened or shut off was that January -EPO period, and ironically, that got us snow in the MA.
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Low of 57
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The only way this could possibly work is for the aleutian high to amplify NEward into -epo like it did in the middle of last January. Which ironically wasn’t driven by the el nino because there was no STJ for those 10 days
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Perfect morning with a chilly breeze. 60s
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It does seem like that kind of summer. Hot and dry most of the time where we routinely blow past 95 like its nothing. Doesn’t seem like the pattern will change anytime soon.
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I just counted 16 90+ degree days for June imby (using the nearest PWS). 14 at IAD. Incredible.
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90, but dews dropped to 68. Drier air moving in
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Good to know. It’s not just the radar being lacking, but also when I look out west it’s almost full sun with minimal clouds… so that made me wonder
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Cell approaching me fizzled. Which is fine, keep the heating going to further stretch the rubber band until it snaps. Hard. This heat and muggy air isn’t going away quietly.
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Think the cap is about to break. Just looked out the window and the clouds have that look. Also a bigger cumulonimbus budding way out to my north.
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94, HI 107 (dp 76) A heat advisory would have been justified. Probably was a tough call though due to cloudiness make that 95/78, HI 111
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Interesting. It’s not clear from the article debunking the link what the statistical significance they found between nao and solar, and the research paper they linked to is paywalled. The other link that tries to find a link for February doesn’t really make a convincing case for it, imho. I’ll see if I can derive the p-value between those datasets broken down by month, just to satisfy my curiosity. If its well over 0.05 for all DJF months, that’s productive because I know I wouldn’t waste any more time on solar when predicting whether there will be blocking in the nao domain or not.
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Unless storms fire up imby today, I’m sitting on 0.56” for the month of June. Very dry.
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Somehow picked up 0.15” this morning.
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Wow at that training… and getting missed to the north
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Oh, and topped at 93 today. Humid enough for a HI of 104-105.
