Terpeast

Based on KIAD data, both max and min are increasing... and the mins seem to be increasing just a little bit faster (steeper) than the maxes, but not by much. Maybe by a degree, or a degree and a half tops.

Interesting question… I can run that analysis for KIAD as a spot check for my region. Will update later today…

Well, that marine pool seemed to have shifted east as I compare the two maps. Maybe that has implications, or maybe it doesn’t.

Thanks for posting this. It's worth noting the ridge over the aleutian islands. That major ridge over far northern europe and NW eurasia is also remarkable, and makes sense in the context of ACE.

Decent rainer with some wind. Finally. nearest pws hasn’t updated their rain obs, but the next one to the SW reported 0.46”

Line is *trying* to get itself together west of the blue ridge. And then there’s the heavy rain threat later in the week. We just gotta capitalize on either one. Ideally both. If we don’t, we’re in serious trouble.

95/79 HI 114

High of 90 so far, clouds holding temps back a bit. But dews are off the charts (78-80) Even if I only get to 95 imby, it’ll still feel like 110

Even IAD didn’t get below 80 last night or this morning

84/77. Oppressive

Yeah if we bust west of 95, then we are in deep trouble with this drought. I don’t know how much more of this my trees and garden can take.

Yeah those clippers have been replaced by GL lows that always seem to interfere with the genesis of cold highs at the most inopportune times. It’s almost as if we need a strong PV to squeeze as far south as Ontario just to get those lows far enough south for DC to snow (like it did twice this January)

Climate change. And no, I'm not being flippant. It's easy to see that if the jet stream runs further north, then everywhere underneath and south of it will be above normal

Another 100 degree day in the bag. (99.7 but rounding up anyway) max HI 113!

98 so far for the high. Max HI 112. Sitting at 96 with lots of cloud cover

Another way we could get some help is an -epo block that happened in the middle of Jan. It was short lived so this plot has some noise, but we can see the cold air dumping into the CONUS. One pathway to this happening is the aleutian ridge pushing poleward through AK, which can occasionally happen in La Ninas. The biggest irony is that this wasn’t driven by El Nino. This was the only 10 day period when the STJ all but quieted down this winter. If I remember correctly, the MJO was in 3 before this pattern aberration occurred (and went onto 4-6 driving record warmth after the two MA snows). Your Jan 2022 scenario and this one are just about the best short-term wintery hits that we can hope for south of 40N in this coming winter, imo

99 for the high. I keep blowing past forecast highs due to dry ground

If this were winter...

93/71

87/72 here

Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense.

One could actually argue that the MJO was in 2/3 when the upstream conditions led to the storm.

Reached 97.5 for the high today, overperformed on temps but not on humidity

Once Beryl clears out of the CONUS, ensembles are showing hints of the WAR/bermuda high re-flexing westward into the eastern seaboard. Hotter and possibly drier than normal conditions appear likely to continue as it has been. Beryl, and its remnants, seems to be the only chance we have for an area-wide drought buster in the extended.

Ha, I’m starting to lose count how many times I’ve hit 100 imby, today included. definitely at least 3 times, but maybe 4 or even 5? And it’s not even mid July yet