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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Seems to be the opposite of last year when I was constantly getting missed and split. Now it seems to hit here with a daily downpour.
  2. Terpeast
    Second round was windier than the first, heavier rain. Last year I didn’t get trained on like this. Nice event today
  3. Terpeast
    Now this is getting interesting. More wind, coming down in sheets. Vsby down to 1/4-1/8 mile. But no hail, no damaging wind Edit: dying off now. A good garden wetter. Seen a lot worse.
  4. Terpeast
    Nothing more than a garden variety downpour. Minimal wind. So far
  5. Terpeast
    Showers from the incoming cell have commenced. Still a wait and see
  6. Terpeast
    Looks like a cell popping up to the west/WSW of me. We shall see if it holds and what path it takes
  7. Terpeast
    Cell passed right over my head. Awesome pouring rain and quite a bit of wind, not quite severe but pretty strong. Don’t have to water the garden for a while.
  8. Terpeast
    Just went out for a walk. It’s @87storms’s kind of day out there. Enjoy it!
  9. Terpeast
    I take no joy in saying this, but I agree with this assessment.
  10. Terpeast
    TT map for comparison (yes, it’s apples vs oranges) I mean, I don’t hate this map. With a cold source nearby, it could be workable. But CFS seems to be on its own, and it’s going to change 1000 times (probably correcting warmer in the last minute)
  11. Terpeast
    By the daily WCS graph, it’s obvious that the strong nino made a dent in the -PDO, but nowhere enough to flip it positive. With waning nino influence, the PDO is right back as negative as it has been prior to the nino. It’s going to be a long time before the PDO goes positive, and I don’t know anymore what it will take to drive that.
  12. Terpeast
    Worth noting that the magnitude of warm anomalies, however short-lived they may be, have been becoming more extreme and are skewing most months AN. If we have a month with 3 weeks of -2 departures, then 1 week of +15, that month is going to end up at least +3 AN or even higher. (You can play with the math and see how it works out) For example, remember that 80 degree day in this January? Take that day away, and Jan 2024 actually ends up just around normal temp wise.
  13. Terpeast
    Checked ouside at 3:30 am, didn’t see anything. One more chance tonight
  14. Terpeast
    Sunny out, hoping to catch curtain sightings tonight at around 9-11 pm before I go to bed
  15. Terpeast
  16. Terpeast
    While we’re looking far ahead, CFS is projecting a crazy active tropics. I hope folks from lesser antilles up through VA beach are prepared to board up or have evac plans. If I lived in Florida, I’d be packing a Go bag right about now. CanSips - YIKES
  17. Terpeast
    Is it just WB or is the CFS predicting that most of the NH except the pole is gonna go colder than the 1981-2010 normal?
  18. Terpeast
    Missed it early this morning, but will BOLO for it tonight
  19. Terpeast
    Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?
  20. Terpeast
    DCA 100 IAD 102 BWI 102 RIC 101
  21. Terpeast
    And the north pac is progged even hotter (more deeply negative PDO)
  22. Terpeast
    0.90” total so far both yesterday and today
  23. Terpeast
    Stepped outside of Dulles airport coming back from relentless SE Asian heat, hoping for some refreshing cool weather… NOPE!
  24. Terpeast
    Yes, please. Doctor just ordered prescription glasses with special lens that block out blue light. Said it was because I stare at a white screen all day for work.
  25. Terpeast
    Yes it will. But this depiction, in my opinion, is well supported by the combination of the projected nina + neg PDO + marine heat wave off Japan.
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