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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Usually starts late april early may, no? I’m overseas the entire month of April so I get to skip the most boring part of the year
  2. I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same.
  3. Thanks. Should I spray before it rains, or when we have a dry forecast coming up?
  4. Serious question. Have you considered getting a job in the ski industry? Not sure if it's viable because ski resorts are suffering all over and may not be hiring like crazy, but have you looked at those opportunities?
  5. I was looking at that first circle over southern Vermont as well. Mainly checking Zillow for real estate prices (casually), but couldn't find a whole lot of listings that aren't down in the valley. Not that I'm planning to move in the short term - I'm staying put for now. There are more important things in life than frozen ice crystals falling from the sky... like friends and family, daughter gets to see her grandma once a week, etc. But if my mom moves out of the DMV, or daughter leaves the house after HS, or otherwise a strong reason for us to move, that's one area I'll be looking at. Or go out west. Only problem is... by then, I may be too old to shovel 3 feet of snow. Unless I keep hitting the gym and stay in shape and not allow myself to let go.
  6. There was a centipede on my wall, and used a large sheet of paper to carry it outside. That thing was fast! I almost fell over because I had to sprint to the door. I dread the bugs this year...
  7. I wonder what the max totals were in that storm. 18.7” at dca and 20” at bwi seem low given the huge impact. Maybe it was the rates and wind, and the element of surprise? Or was there a local max DC and Southeast? I know IAD only got 16” so they couldn’t have been anywhere near the jack.
  8. Doesn’t look cold enough to me, but the Op is colder. Doesn’t rule out something interesting
  9. Gfs op run at 12z is surprisingly cold at the surface [[moved from other thread so the mods don’t have to]]
  10. I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better.
  11. 2010 was a brief interruption of the negative pdo cycle when it briefly peaked positive. I thought this Nino would do the same, but the pdo stayed negative.
  12. Bottomed out at 19. Surprised to see that some snow cover survived in my front and back yards
  13. The “fly in the ointment” was extra strat water vapor from the HTHH eruption. This kind of eruption never happened before, and it was thought that strat cooling and a stronger SPV would occur as a result. But no one really knew. Maybe this was a competing influence vs the -QBO and propensity for blocking, resulting in these +/- back and forths. Just speculating
  14. Yeah I saw that… brutal. I feel better about my 1.5” today where I am, instead of being practically across the street from that band
  15. Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter.
  16. Not sure about DCA, but after today IAD has 11.7” on the season. Edit: DCA at exactly 8.0”
  17. All ensembles show a mslp track to our north and west, at least at 6z
  18. Hard to predict enso beyond the spring predictability barrier, let alone 2 years from now
  19. I think the Pacific cycle will flip soon, within a few years. Blocking, I’m not so sure because we’re about to enter a descending phase of the solar cycle. But the association between blocking and solar is tenously weak at best, so I could be wrong. And I’ve also observed that NS waves have been more juicy, which gave us a good January and the PA/NJ/NY crowd a great week this week. STJ waves have been too warm because they haven’t been able to sync up with cold air at all. If that changes, though, and we get cold air on our side, and we manage a STJ or phased wave, totals will be truly jawdropping. My wag, though, is that next year won’t be it. Maybe the year after.
  20. So far LWX is leaning on the gfs over the euro, but it’s wide open now given recent model performance
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