Terpeast

Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly. If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification)

Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models

Post it for everyone to see...

LWX has our low end being 1" and high end 5" in the dc/balt metros

Looks south of what it was before, unless I got my wires crossed up with another model. Still think forum wide is good for 2-4" and northern tier get better ratios

If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+

I'll happily take a 2-4er

23.7 low, heavy frost. 36 now

Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory.

Its certainly possible. March waves tend to be crazy amplified but timing with cold air will be tricky esepcially this year. I’d be happy with one more chance to play in the snow with my daughter and call it a winter, though. That’s where my head’s at now

Could be the last chance then that’d be all folks

Yep getting interesting. A little south trend won’t hurt. Wiggle room!

Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and - Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino. Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 1840-1880: neg for 40 years 1880-1910: pos for 30 years 1910-1925: brief neg for 15y 1924-1945: pos 20y 1945-1975: neg 30y 1975-1998: pos 23y 1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways

Cool, just downloaded too. I’ll get on the rapid rewards tomorrow too. Getting ready to get some free flights next year, wherever that may be!

Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program?

Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay

I hate to say this but that’s very nina-like. In a strong borderline super nino no less.

Looks better with temps this holds through 0z and 12z tomorrow, I’ll be more interested

Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well.

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

I like you Jeb, but no.