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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Agreed. Even 2-3" would be a steal considering how this system was depicted in the weeks leading up to now
  2. Terpeast
    HRRR sounding at IAD for 12z tomorrow
  3. Terpeast
    I don’t think this is right, but…
  4. Terpeast
    Oof, that eps run
  5. Terpeast
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see a WWA in the next tier of counties south of the current WSW
  6. Terpeast
    12z euro shows more snow for the metros than 0z/6z, though that’s not saying much. Just 1” verbatim for mby
  7. Terpeast
    Looks good. Reasonable. I love how the GFS has 10"+ across the river from me, with me getting almost nothing. This thing is gonna come down to rates.
  8. Terpeast
    They went pretty low. Curious as to what's their high end call is
  9. Terpeast
    Agreed. I think the 12k tends to overestimate snowfall and accumulations in marginal situations. I would think that the higher resolution 3k would capture the lower BL and microclimates better, and if the lower BL is a degree too warm then the 12k can easily miss that. The 3km HRRR on the other hand...
  10. Terpeast
    Just before the commute I think
  11. Terpeast
    I think in this case it comes down to the upper level low track
  12. Terpeast
    3k nam holds onto rain as the ptype for the metros, while 12k is much snowier. It’s going to come down to rates.
  13. Terpeast
    H5 vort track and strength look similar to me on both. Different qpf maps sure
  14. Terpeast
    CAMs were the first to catch on for both Jan events. Can they score a hat trick here?
  15. Terpeast
    Now that is a beatdown (whether it verifies is TBD)
  16. Terpeast
    Interesting how the globals and cams are so far apart on snowfall amounts in this sub less than 24 hours before the event
  17. Terpeast
    Strong convection in the SE is the reason we are seeing a south trend.
  18. Terpeast
    Lo and behold, the 12z HRRR. Could see a few hours of snow on the backend, and a dynamic one at that
  19. Terpeast
    Keeping an eye on how the CAMs resolve the convection the SE, which may lead to pulling the storm further south. Going to be an interesting tracking day.
  20. Terpeast
    No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say
  21. Terpeast
    Models lost the nao basically
  22. Terpeast
    What’s also changed is the nam and eps closes off the h5 wave, whereas before it remained an open wave. 0z should be interesting
  23. Terpeast
    If I were the HC I’d pull Kelce
  24. Terpeast
    You aren’t kidding. This is why I’m not calling TOD on this winter yet.
  25. Terpeast
    I’m waiting until the 18th to call it. If that event fails, and the models are still trending warm all the way into march, then I’m going to start wrapping this thing up and looking at potential winter destinations for next year
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