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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down.
  2. Terpeast
    That ns vort has been quietly trending south the last 6-8 runs. Continue that for for another 24 hours, the N&W crew may back into something here
  3. Terpeast
    I don’t know what the 3rd one was, but that dec event - I’m not sure I agree that its a good example. It was more of a function of timing with cold air’s arrival during the precip event. It morphed from an anafront to a wave along the front. It would have happened the same way 60 years ago vs today, and had that wave been 6 hours slower, we would have gotten a nice 3-6” event across the metros. Jan 7 is the more glaring example, to me. That’s what prompted me to lower my expectations for the rest of the season. Had it been colder, the low would have taken a track 50-100 miles souther than it did, and we’d have gotten 6-12”+
  4. Terpeast
    Jan 7 is the obvious one. What were the other two?
  5. Terpeast
    Same, it’s not over yet. (Even though it feels like the fat lady is clearing her throat about now)
  6. Terpeast
    Yeah, the models are totally lost on handling this pattern change and what comes soon after.
  7. Terpeast
    Great post. You’d think we’d need a beast NAO block, but the feb 7 run is only marginally better than today’s run. It won’t take much at all to reel this one back in. Definitely keeping an eye.
  8. Terpeast
    Op gfs forms another -EPO block at 300+ hours, but ensembles don’t have that yet. Something to keep an eye on whether we see another -EPO show up along with -NAO they keep showing
  9. Terpeast
    I hope you all jebwalked that week of winter and filled up your phone with pics and videos to savor for the next year. Maybe the next two years.
  10. Terpeast
    Models/ensembles have trended warmer towards the end of Feb, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they trended back colder once the pattern change takes hold this week and the convection fires back up in the IO.
  11. Terpeast
    6z gfs at 150 + 0z euro at 234 0z cmc also shows support for feb 17
  12. Terpeast
    I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. After this winter, for fun, I’m going to look at what pattern caused it to snow here in every case from 2017 to date. I suspect some combination of -EPO/-NAO but I want to see the data for myself.
  13. Terpeast
    In case you weren’t aware, @Carvers Gap is dropping value bombs with excellent MJO and LR model analysis. You should follow him. Very educational and I’m on the same page as he.
  14. Terpeast
    This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so
  15. Terpeast
    Here is one reason why I have eyes on PD despite the op gfs showing a rainstorm. Feb 13-14 was supposed to be a cutter and was depicted as such up until earlier this week. And we don’t even have cold air anywhere nearby. I think we will see it evolve in our favor once the models work out the northern stream under a greenland blocking regime.
  16. Terpeast
    If the same happens in a nino, then we can’t simply say it’s a “la nina problem”
  17. Terpeast
    GEFS look good with PD. 850s peak around normal during the event, which is around -3 nw of 95 and -2 for the rest
  18. Terpeast
    For better or worse, it will change. Stick with the ensembles especially at this range
  19. Terpeast
    Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm
  20. Terpeast
    7/8 now then weak 1/2 the rest of the month
  21. Terpeast
    No worries, we’re good
  22. Terpeast
    Like PSU said 2 months ago… not everyone is going to make it.
  23. Terpeast
    If I think that this is going be north of us, do you not want me to say it? Just… be silent? I’m sorry but that’s not how I roll. If I think it, I’m gonna say it. Just be grateful that I’m not going to repeat it every 5 minutes like some others do
  24. Terpeast
    I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place.
  25. Terpeast
    Its trended a bit north the last couple of days, though. Less suppression
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