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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don’t think the prime time starts until after 2/15 anyway. The week before that appears to more of a transition period
  2. Terpeast
    How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time
  3. Terpeast
  4. Terpeast
    Yeah, I'm less worried about the clock running out on us than I was a week ago, or even a few days ago. That 540 line is pretty close to us on the D12-15 ensembles... and that's geopotential height, not thicknesses!
  5. Terpeast
    Looking at analog matches centered on Feb 11 seems a tad too early. I'd want to see what the matches look like centered around Feb 18th or so.
  6. Terpeast
    Low of 26. Thick frost
  7. Terpeast
    Don’t look now but 0z gfs trended even further west with the TPV lobe and phases into a closed h5 low over delmarva. Clips cape cod. Very close to a coastal MA hit. Razor thin close. Continue this trend, it’s back alive for eastern folks. Unfortunately it’s on its own with only the icon for support. Other models way OTS
  8. Terpeast
    Looks awful
  9. Terpeast
    Final January average for mby: Jan 2024: 44/28 (~3 deg AN), 6.54” (wet!) Dec 2023: 51/33 (~5 deg AN), 6.55” (wet!) Noting these against my outlook. I was pretty confident that we’d have a wetter than normal winter and so far that is panning out. Not surprised by the warm december, but would have thought Jan would be closer to normal. That 78 degree day skewed us at least full degree upward. Take that day away, we'd be at only 2 degrees AN at roughly 44/26 Now let’s see what Feb brings!
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, that'll be what it takes for us to beat climo by a decent margin. Add one more SECS and we'll put this as one of the better nino winters in the books.
  11. Terpeast
    Insane!
  12. Terpeast
    that's only up to Feb 15. The real fun should begin then, not likely before
  13. Terpeast
    I originally had this pegged as a cutter, but if we can get any frozen out of that, it’d be a big win before the best pattern comes.
  14. Terpeast
    Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out.
  15. Terpeast
    Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ.
  16. Terpeast
    Mostly rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in
  17. Terpeast
    Ah, I was looking past that one!
  18. Terpeast
    Gfs and canadian ensembles look the same. There’s not much to add to what’s already been said
  19. Terpeast
    Folks. This is it. This is our best shot at a KU in 8 years.
  20. Terpeast
    Cold air is on the way. Feb 1 (top) vs Feb 15 (bottom)
  21. Terpeast
    12z gefs shifted south for feb 5, geps shifted north.
  22. Terpeast
    Remains a long shot, but still a non-zero chance. Not a great idea to get too invested, but worth keeping an eye on for any north shifts, especially by the gfs.
  23. Terpeast
    looks plenty of cold air from rockies to EC if this verifies
  24. Terpeast
    Good sign that it’s staying around feb 14 or even moving a little forward in time
  25. Terpeast
    Now that is a much better -NAO look
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