Terpeast

GFS miss to the south as well, lol

Thinking it’d be a west of 15 special. East of 15 marginal unless it falls at night or early AM

Yeah, I understand where you’re coming from now. I may not agree 100% completely, but I hear what you’re saying. It would have been great if the nao block that led to the 1 week of wintry weather sustained itself longer to keep us colder longer, giving us a chance for another hit or two instead of torching to 70s the other day. It was kind of surprising how quickly that block broke down. And considering that the second storm could have been much bigger had it not been for a lead wave that tamped things down for the second wave. But we did have that wintry week, something we haven’t seen in so long, and the pattern ensembles+weeklies have been spitting out for Feb is way better and has a ton more upside for a bigger hit. One look at those maps and I’m thinking, “someone is going to get walloped. Pummeled. Obliterated.” Not saying it will actually happen, or that it’ll come down in one big hammer. It could be a few moderate events spread out over a month. It could be a miss to the south. It could be a mixed event. As CAPE would say, we just can’t know yet. You’re not liking what your gut feeling is telling you (and you could be right). I, otoh, see more upside in the coming pattern than we’ve seen all winter, that one wintry week included. Keep posting, Bob. We all value your input!

Gotcha, thanks. I do like what I see coming up ahead, the only thing missing is the NAO. I do want to see that get stronger by mid Feb, so we’ll see

Normally I love your insights, but this time I’m not quite getting where you’re coming from. I don’t see a can kick and the ensembles are in lockstep with a more favorable pattern by Feb 12-15, with a shot at a trackable event in the Feb 3-6 timeframe. Am I missing something that you’ve caught onto?

Yeah the 60 degree dewpoints really did a number on us, even though it was pretty transient

Yeah, that’s the main thing - this is not a pig SER standing wave stuck in there as we’d see in a nina. It’s a transient ridge between waves. Completely typical

The one-day torch is over. Good thing it wasn’t for weeks upon weeks. Back to vanilla AN airmass in the 40s, and back to near normal by tomorrow

Funny how the NYC forum completely disregarded the most wintry 10 day period we had down here in years only because DC hit 80 degrees for one day. Just one day! Talk about warminista cherry picking lol

Good posts @Blizzard of 93 and we still have a chance on Feb 3-6 before the transient ridge, before the SW trough undercuts again

Two weeks out. Relax.

He was complaining about the torch 2 weeks ahead while it was snowing. All he had to do was look out the window?

I had to do a double take to realize that this wasn’t Ji

FYI

Oh that’s 9-10 days away. Pace yourself bro, we got a marathon coming up

Which one are you tracking?

Straight from the weenie handbook: “right where we want it at 10 days out”?

I like that clustering off the NC coast

Not much. You’ve been all over this for a week now. It’s something to track for now

He’s got zero credibility at this point. Just like JB always calling for cold, and warminstas cherry-picking torch patterns.

77.5 for the high. Took advantage by going out for a run

High of 78 imby, still time

Making a run for 80, wow this is insane. 75 now

Feel better. I just had a bout of covid but luckily it wasn't a hard hitter like my first time.

Both storms look weird. Straight down from north and then back up the coast. Not sure I've seen an evolution like that and it actually resulting in snow for us