Terpeast

Time to plan a ski trip to Whistler then

Yep, when I predicted 20-40” for our sub, I gave DCA a “siting penalty” of -30% which comes to roughly 14-28”. Too bad

47, fog. Snow cover is gone. That was a good 10 days of snow pack.

Well, don’t look now but 6z op shows 3 hits down underneath into NC. Right where we want it? Btw I’m not worried about lack of snow on the means on the weeklies. It’s just not something to take seriously until discrete threats show up in range.

This can easily support snow if it’s falling at night and the 850 low passes south of us. Let’s give it a few more cycles, and if euro and gfs continue this trend and bring colder air in a bit earlier & souther, we can start honking. Still too early to think of this beyond anything more than snow TV

On the gfs the 850 low was over W PA 2 runs ago, and now its overhead if not a bit south of us. Still skeptical, and need other model support. Could be gfs moving closer to euro/cmc, but the latter two are still a bit too warm. Best case scenario for us is mostly rain and ending as snow with a coating. But we shall watch and see.

Many areas got whacked. Likely gone by tomorrow afternoon

H5 looks great. Near perfect. But what matters is what we have at the surface. How cold does it get, not just when it's dry, but when it's precipitating. Do we get a good high to the north when we get an incoming wave? Where does the r/s line lie? Those details obviously can't be resolved this far out, and I'd be highly skeptical of snow maps at 3 weeks out. Take last week for example - 3 weeks or even 1 week prior, snow maps barely showed an inch and we ended up getting ~10 in one week! I don't remember seeing a snow map like that on the weeklies that far out. If anything, they were further north across PA into SNE, even up until 2 days before the second wave, and then it dunked south at the last possible minute.

Nice... and this is entirely before the "good" pattern starting Feb 8-12ish??

True, but we had the cold air. This time we don't.

Agreed. I think E PA / N NJ wins this one. Not sure about NYC metro. High elevs in our sub may get a little bit, too

Still good. Especially shaded areas facing NW

We got "lucky" twice last week but that was when there was plenty of cold air. I don't think we luck into this one this time, except for higher elevations (I'm looking at you, PSU). For the rest of us, we wait until 2nd week of Feb, maybe a bit sooner.

36. 10 days of snowpack. Hanging tough at 3-4 inches in most areas, with some bare ground showing now. It was interesting to see which spots imby hang on the longest and which melt off first…

Yep looks that way. Positive sign. In February, every day counts!

I like it. As long as there is no can kicking. get that thing to undercut is how we win

I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here. Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period.

Low of 21

Beautiful split flow right there, stronger branch south

Good. That’s the sign I was looking for. This is the opposite of a can kick

Low of 9

Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours!

Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford that

That’s a big step back from previous runs. Now looking like an interior north hit with rain down here

Looks like a transitional week feb 5-12 (similar to first 10 days of Jan) and then feb 12 and onwards we get our chances i do wish it gets moved up even a few days though, we don’t want this thaw running the clock out on us