Terpeast

I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here. Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period.

Low of 21

Beautiful split flow right there, stronger branch south

Good. That’s the sign I was looking for. This is the opposite of a can kick

Low of 9

Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours!

Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford that

That’s a big step back from previous runs. Now looking like an interior north hit with rain down here

Looks like a transitional week feb 5-12 (similar to first 10 days of Jan) and then feb 12 and onwards we get our chances i do wish it gets moved up even a few days though, we don’t want this thaw running the clock out on us

Fell short of freezing. 31.5 for the high, now 30.9

So this might go in banter or panic room because this is purely unscientific conjecture… But if the pac jet is getting stronger with a hadley cell squeeze no matter in a nina or nino, what should we root for? More ninas where the jet doesn’t get as super extended as in ninos, but still extended enough to stick a pna ridge in the west? Last time we tried that though, we got a +PNA but the downstream trough dug right underneath into baja, and the pna ridge just flopped over right on top of us. Maybe that was just a one off? I know in ninas we get an Aleutian ridge which is usually kiss of death for us, but it shouldnt take much of an extension to push that ridge over the top into AK and drive more cold air down here? It can’t be that hard

For now it’s way too warm, but there’s a cold high lurking to the north. It won’t take much of a favorable trend to flip this into our favor

Low of 18

That’s your plan B

Feb 12 2024 book it

High of 25, now 19

I know this is in jest, but the period jan 28-31 is one to watch even in a lousy pattern. Going to be a needle threader or late miller B or may just be a perfect track rainstorm, but we’re still in the game. Wouldn’t count us out yet all the way to 2nd week Feb

Agreed. Since I’m exactly halfway to the old climo benchmark, I’d give it a midterm grade of B.

How far out? 8-9 days if I remember correctly? Further back, guidance was showing a torch mid month

Just went out for a drive. 5-7” snow pack, cold windy blowing snow off roofs, deep winter feel. Soaking it all in before shit the blinds. This is the time to close up your laptops and get the F out there and enjoy winter!

Same. Maybe not a MECS but something might sneak up on us like this week has

Boston, too

Awesome, the mountains are having a great year! When we visited last year, there was only 4-6” on the ground with icy layer underneath, and that was in February!

Seasonal snowfall to date. That 11” near my house checks out.

I wasn’t in Ashburn at the time, but I don’t think it was anything more than a trace.