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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    31/20 ashburn. No word from Loudoun county schools
  2. Terpeast
    Mid-atl forum: Violent mood swings that bond us for life NYC forum: Never gon’ snow again because mjo is stuck in 4-7 for good NE forum: Let’s hope that high presses down to give us a SWFE event and read 40/70 detailed forecasts That about right?
  3. Terpeast
    Broke freezing for a high of 33, but barely any melting
  4. Terpeast
    Was looking at pivotal, but it's probably a wash if not a little better with 18z especially DC south
  5. Terpeast
    Dunno, it seems more spread out and evenly distributed. South of DC to EZF will be happy with this run Kuchera looks better though
  6. Terpeast
    Looks like a hold. Vort passes south of us, qpf seems similar if not a hair less
  7. Terpeast
    Bit slower, but also drier
  8. Terpeast
    Snow moves in at 9z
  9. Terpeast
    No. Don't. We got a good thing going with this thread. Starting a new one might be bad juju.... Unless the 18z/0z runs lay an egg on us.
  10. Terpeast
    Wow, the "upwards of 4 inches" language is new today
  11. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don't think we and the NWS are speaking the same language...
  12. Terpeast
    If we get 2-3", we'll be at around 7-8" including the December event, which is par for the course by this time of year. We'll need Feb & Mar to deliver the goods for us to beat climo. I still think there's good chance of that happening. But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and enjoy it.
  13. Terpeast
    Only thing about backing into another surprise performer is my daughter will insist on taking me out sledding even while I’m still sick. Better get to sleep early tonight so i can power through a 30 min sesh tomorrow and go back to bed after
  14. Terpeast
    The plot thickens…
  15. Terpeast
    Thats from the same run but two different time frames
  16. Terpeast
    Stronger coastal / early transfer really makes a big difference here. Amazing what a couple mb or a 50 mile shift south on the upper levels can do
  17. Terpeast
    Looks pretty reasonable. I'm just south of that C line in B territory, so 2" is a good target for mby. Hopefully it breaks right as you say and I make a run for 3". Just need that vort to stay a bit south and NoVA to work its radar backbuilding magic like it sometimes does in these budding coastal setups.
  18. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think these model LR forecasts rely too much on the MJO. Well, the MJO are well within the warm phases this week and our sensible weather has been the opposite of what you’d expect. It’s not the end all be all like some are saying.
  19. Terpeast
    Now I have a real shot at 3 inches! Now lets see what the rest of the 12z models have to say…
  20. Terpeast
    A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days.
  21. Terpeast
    Thanks, appreciate it!
  22. Terpeast
    WWA 1-3” for mby. Can’t complain
  23. Terpeast
    Low of 11, now 19
  24. Terpeast
    Now that’s what I call a screwjob. Everyone gets more than an inch and I get less. Life ain’t fair. I liked the h5 better though. Hope it’s the start of a surprise last minute trend. And I have covid. That’s all.
  25. Terpeast
    True. Best case scenario here is something similar to what happened with the last system where it beefed up moisture. I think this will be to a much lesser extent here. 1-2" with an upside of 3"
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