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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD)
  2. Terpeast
    18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus
  3. Terpeast
    Nice to see the NAM but PV (the site) seems to be slow tonight
  4. Terpeast
    This is encouraging because the EPS long range has been doing great this winter.
  5. Terpeast
    I’ll take
  6. Terpeast
    Are you saying the gfs handles nrn streams better than the euro?
  7. Terpeast
    At least this is inside 7 days. I'll get more excited once we get within 4 days and it's still showing similar outcomes. And we need the euro on board.
  8. Terpeast
    Not the answer we were all hoping for, though.
  9. Terpeast
    Chuck has talked about the hadley cell expansion. To translate Chuck-speak, the tropics and midlatitudes have been warming so their circulation has been expanding, pushing the jet slightly north, and taking all the storm tracks with it. This is the key flaw in my own analysis of how past snowstorms would perform today. My assumption was that the storm tracks would remain the same, but the temps a few degrees warmer. But what I did not account for (or have the resources to analyze) was how the storm tracks would be affected by that warming. Take the blizzard of 1996 for example. That was a la nina winter. Normally the jet would cut north of us, but that storm dived so deep to the south that we got a hit from it. Do you think that if we got the same setup today, but the jet is further north, we’d still get the same result? Or would it have not dug so deep? Would it have been a cutter today? Or a miller B? Or even NO storm at all?
  10. Terpeast
    It’s not just perfect track rainstorms. It’s the jet stream shifting north
  11. Terpeast
    I do share this sentiment. I don’t remember too many 3-6/4-8” storms, but the big ones are vividly etched into my photographic memories. I just hope my memory doesn’t go when I get older (and I’m not exactly a spring chicken either)
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah, I think deep down we know we already have our answer
  13. Terpeast
    And then watch it fall apart by D3
  14. Terpeast
    I think that boat has sailed. We needed at least one of the two storms from jan 16-21 to hit fairly big to put this winter within that class of analogs.
  15. Terpeast
    I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that.
  16. Terpeast
    Last year we never had a chance inside of 5 days. This year? Twice. Two heartbreakers in one month.
  17. Terpeast
    It’s over. Will be lucky to see an inch out of this, and I’m usually one of the more optimistic ones
  18. Terpeast
    Cold and dry and then reload for Feb
  19. Terpeast
    Me. My wife has a good laugh every time she sees model panels on my phone
  20. Terpeast
    Still holding out hope for an inch or two, but I won’t lie… I’m tired
  21. Terpeast
    True, its just one model run, but the trend has been going the wrong way for a while
  22. Terpeast
    Sounds like we’re only an inch away from a rug pull
  23. Terpeast
    King euro is back?
  24. Terpeast
    I’m thinking 12z tomorrow for much better clarity. But hopefully 0z will give us a clue whether the 12z runs today are onto a trend
  25. Terpeast
    At least they moved west. Better than 0z
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