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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    It would. I’m cautiously optimistic but not fully in yet.
  2. Terpeast
    If we actually get snow cover, we may get even colder than that
  3. Terpeast
    Liking the r/s line well south towards Richmond. Let’s hope this holds more or less the next couple of days. Good sign is that all models agree well on the cutter track up the midwest through the lakes.
  4. Terpeast
    Even moved closer to the coast while shifting colder (12z gfs op run)
  5. Terpeast
    Yep, its when they resolve when and how the cutter retrogrades into the tpv that we will know
  6. Terpeast
    I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork
  7. Terpeast
    Not a fan of how this guy makes his comparisons, but the cutter track has been highly uncertain even 48 hours out. This is why we shouldn’t bank on a certain track for 16-17 https://x.com/chasingwconnor/status/1745265130592424081?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w
  8. Terpeast
    I was going to say the same thing. I rather be on the northern fringe at 6 days out
  9. Terpeast
    Same
  10. Terpeast
    The big reason to consider discounting any of the solutions we’ve seen so far is that we still have to clear that second cutter before the models can zero in on a likely outcome. Until then, everything is low confidence and low skill. I don’t think the model runs tonight “failed” at all. If anything, they’ve picked up a signal that there will be a storm or two with cold air, plus some favorable trends.
  11. Terpeast
    @baltosquidbeat me to it
  12. Terpeast
    Gefs 4 run trend with precip
  13. Terpeast
    Gefs looks like 12z
  14. Terpeast
    Lol not gonna happen that far out, and even if it did it won’t hold
  15. Terpeast
    And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run
  16. Terpeast
    Trying to set up something at 198
  17. Terpeast
    Still a ton of run to run changes, huge shifts up top at 500mb, so that tells me that the models are still resolving the details beyond the next cutter. For now these shifts are in our favor
  18. Terpeast
    3 run trend
  19. Terpeast
    Mostly noise out to 96 except the s/w vort is a bit slower and sharper Never mind, that wasn’t the vort of interest
  20. Terpeast
    Most similar to 18z euro i think
  21. Terpeast
    In case no one noticed, the new MEI is 1.1 Almost a full point below ONI
  22. Terpeast
    Let's see how clear the models get this after the next cutter. I think they'll start getting into better agreement on the final solution for the 19th to 22nd window once the cutter passes by on Friday. It would still be 7-10 days out at that point, but if the "big one" is going to get sniffed out early, we should start seeing that by then - around Friday/Saturday. Now? A bit too soon.
  23. Terpeast
    Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased. Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.
  24. Terpeast
    My read was it phased a wee bit too late, but at 10 days out it’s really close to something big 0z euro OTOH phased too early (stj wave was a day ahead of gfs). Things are going to shuffle plenty, so best stick with ensembles.
  25. Terpeast
    Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this)
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