Terpeast

That answered my question. Good sign if it’s the furthest South of the ensembles

Is that the one next to the 13? and how do you know that's the OP?

I think I know why the Euro spit out a way different solution, and I think it's weird. I'll also show why the CMC showed something different, like a closer track with ptype issues. Euro has this trailing vort that's pretty strong, but never phases with the TPV. Instead, they stay separate, while they squeeze the positively tilted wave further SE. Too much confluence over us. The Canadian otoh has a weaker trailing vort that's further behind... either less relevant, or loses energy to the lead vort that closes off west of the mississippi. This is the other end of the spectrum vs. the euro. Less confluence up top doesn't help either. Now the GFS shows the cleanest solution. Where is that trailing vort? There isn't one. Instead we have tall ridging into NW Canada/Alaska. We have an open wave rotating under the TPV with more confluence to the NE. I don't know what to make of the trailing vort shown on the Euro and Canadian, and the lack thereof on the GFS. Maybe they're both picking up on something that the GFS is missing. But it's something to keep an eye on. On the other hand, the TPV seems to be well modeled and in fairly good agreement with all 3 models. I think the Euro solution is weird because the strong trailing vort and the TPV never manages to phase. From a physics standpoint, I think they should. But they don't.

Now if you're a weenie, you'll love what Chuck is saying now. All it will take is for a slight 50-100 mile shift in the TPV to pull the track back up (or further suppress it)

My hunch is that we'll see another tick north once the models resolve the next few days. That's been the repetitive theme as far as I can remember.

Op euro probably on the SE side of the ensemble envelope, which means we can't rule a solution like that out. At least most members are more NW of the op

Again, it goes back to clearing the cutter outta here before we can hone in on a solution. Sorry I sound like a broken record saying this but it is what it is

This only increases the uncertainty even more

We know, but we've gotten rug pulled too many times to put that superstition to bed

All models have trended towards the euro except the CMC

Yeah, a bit east

Is that ukie trending further SE?

Think if euro/gfs both agree, we can safely throw out the cmc. And euro/eps has led the way on this. Lets see if this holds today and tomorrow if I’m going to start a thread, I’d start it on Saturday after the 0z runs

I don’t like the CMC solution, but it still seems unsettled with the h5 evolution. How has its performance been lately?

It would. I’m cautiously optimistic but not fully in yet.

If we actually get snow cover, we may get even colder than that

Liking the r/s line well south towards Richmond. Let’s hope this holds more or less the next couple of days. Good sign is that all models agree well on the cutter track up the midwest through the lakes.

Even moved closer to the coast while shifting colder (12z gfs op run)

Yep, its when they resolve when and how the cutter retrogrades into the tpv that we will know

I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork

Not a fan of how this guy makes his comparisons, but the cutter track has been highly uncertain even 48 hours out. This is why we shouldn’t bank on a certain track for 16-17 https://x.com/chasingwconnor/status/1745265130592424081?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w

I was going to say the same thing. I rather be on the northern fringe at 6 days out

Same

The big reason to consider discounting any of the solutions we’ve seen so far is that we still have to clear that second cutter before the models can zero in on a likely outcome. Until then, everything is low confidence and low skill. I don’t think the model runs tonight “failed” at all. If anything, they’ve picked up a signal that there will be a storm or two with cold air, plus some favorable trends.

@baltosquidbeat me to it