Terpeast

Gefs 4 run trend with precip

Gefs looks like 12z

Lol not gonna happen that far out, and even if it did it won’t hold

And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run

Trying to set up something at 198

Still a ton of run to run changes, huge shifts up top at 500mb, so that tells me that the models are still resolving the details beyond the next cutter. For now these shifts are in our favor

3 run trend

Mostly noise out to 96 except the s/w vort is a bit slower and sharper Never mind, that wasn’t the vort of interest

Most similar to 18z euro i think

In case no one noticed, the new MEI is 1.1 Almost a full point below ONI

Let's see how clear the models get this after the next cutter. I think they'll start getting into better agreement on the final solution for the 19th to 22nd window once the cutter passes by on Friday. It would still be 7-10 days out at that point, but if the "big one" is going to get sniffed out early, we should start seeing that by then - around Friday/Saturday. Now? A bit too soon.

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased. Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

My read was it phased a wee bit too late, but at 10 days out it’s really close to something big 0z euro OTOH phased too early (stj wave was a day ahead of gfs). Things are going to shuffle plenty, so best stick with ensembles.

Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this)

Now that we've cleared the first cutter, we're seeing the models trend towards an outcome (whatever that may be, for better or worse). Still have the next power cutter up before our period of interest, so we're probably not seeing the final solution on any of the models yet. Again, for better or for worse.

1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing.

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes

Dropping off my daughter at preschool, I saw the kids artwork portraying a winter wonderland using cotton as snow. I felt a pang of heartbreak

Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it? ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road.

Much more suppressed for Jan 15

As far apart the euro is from the Cmc/gfs/icon around jan 15-17, they do seem to agree on a general idea of a planetary wave breaking event and a growing block plus a TPV in South-SE Canada. But there will be so many vorts pinwheeling around the TPV, I have low confidence of any model keying into each vort or any phasing with the SS at this time

See, this is what I mean by the models not being able to “see” past the cutters. We have one in progress that’s powerful enough to induce planetary wave breaking , and its interfering with the usual skill level of models even 3 days out. It’s like standing on a beach and normally, you can see a couple of sets out towards the horizon that’ll bring plenty of fun rides to surfers in their lineup within a few minutes. But if an incoming wave is so high that it blocks your view of the horizon, you can’t see what’s coming until after that wave breaks. Similar idea.

One cutter down, one to go. Let’s see if models start getting into agreement on jan 16 by this time tomorrow.

2.06”. Not a lot of wind

Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point.