Terpeast

Most similar to 18z euro i think

In case no one noticed, the new MEI is 1.1 Almost a full point below ONI

Let's see how clear the models get this after the next cutter. I think they'll start getting into better agreement on the final solution for the 19th to 22nd window once the cutter passes by on Friday. It would still be 7-10 days out at that point, but if the "big one" is going to get sniffed out early, we should start seeing that by then - around Friday/Saturday. Now? A bit too soon.

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased. Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

My read was it phased a wee bit too late, but at 10 days out it’s really close to something big 0z euro OTOH phased too early (stj wave was a day ahead of gfs). Things are going to shuffle plenty, so best stick with ensembles.

Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this)

Now that we've cleared the first cutter, we're seeing the models trend towards an outcome (whatever that may be, for better or worse). Still have the next power cutter up before our period of interest, so we're probably not seeing the final solution on any of the models yet. Again, for better or for worse.

1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing.

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes

Dropping off my daughter at preschool, I saw the kids artwork portraying a winter wonderland using cotton as snow. I felt a pang of heartbreak

Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it? ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road.

Much more suppressed for Jan 15

As far apart the euro is from the Cmc/gfs/icon around jan 15-17, they do seem to agree on a general idea of a planetary wave breaking event and a growing block plus a TPV in South-SE Canada. But there will be so many vorts pinwheeling around the TPV, I have low confidence of any model keying into each vort or any phasing with the SS at this time

See, this is what I mean by the models not being able to “see” past the cutters. We have one in progress that’s powerful enough to induce planetary wave breaking , and its interfering with the usual skill level of models even 3 days out. It’s like standing on a beach and normally, you can see a couple of sets out towards the horizon that’ll bring plenty of fun rides to surfers in their lineup within a few minutes. But if an incoming wave is so high that it blocks your view of the horizon, you can’t see what’s coming until after that wave breaks. Similar idea.

One cutter down, one to go. Let’s see if models start getting into agreement on jan 16 by this time tomorrow.

2.06”. Not a lot of wind

Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point.

Just exceeded an inch

I think the GFS is probably a wee bit too far SE. it may trend closer to the coast, as did the 12z gefs

Yeah and thats why we shouldn’t get too invested until the second cutter is in progress and or so well modeled that it’s details are locked in

Sounds like 12z euro is the most amped of the 3 models this run. I noticed you tagged me on your question as to why we get a perfect pac and atlantic and the trough dumps SW and we get a SE ridge. I know you’re looking for an answer, but all I have to say is that I don’t know. I don’t have any answers for that.

Could be a wash because its more positively tilted even if more phased

12z gefs trended better and closer to the coast with more precip over us for jan 16

Just looked at all models - Euro 6z is more amped than GFS and CMC, but CMC did trend towards Euro/GFS. GFS 12z is close, but hasn't trended much in either direction. It's in the range of error/possible solutions at a week out. What we know is that 1) colder air is coming, and 2) there'll be a wave along the boundary. That's all for now.

I get why folks aren’t happy with this GFS run, but it’s a lot closer to a hit than they think. Still a week out, so definitely not the final solution (for better or for worse)