Terpeast

I just checked, all ensembles/models agree on a jan 16-17 wave with varying degrees of suppression or cutter-ish looks. The ops (ec and canadian) show a cutter those days, but all ensembles show a more suppressed track which makes more sense with the block and colder air up top. The ops dump all cold air to the west making the storm cut, but I think that’s a low probability outcome that’s being over-projected by the cutter pattern this week.

Agree. I for one would love to see a suppressed look at D7-10 lead times. And brooklyn didn’t deserve that potshot from ralph

Either way, glad to see a better looking op run at 7 days out. That’s when the ops start to hone in on a general synoptic look and progression

Are you still hoping jan 13 won’t be a cutter? (Serious question)

The fact that we still have cutters this winter doesn’t concern me in the least. I predicted that we will see them half the time. Note above normal precip anomalies in the midwest from my winter outlook. Two branches of the STJ, one that cuts and one that doesn’t. This week it will be the former. But it won’t last, instead we will likely rotate between those two dominant tracks.

I didn’t say that. I said we have a window of opportunity Jan 15-20/22 before looking forward to Feb

Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd

@Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot.

That’s the time frame I’m keeping an eye on. 15-20 or so and yes @CAPE I’d be all over a 6-10” event. If we get that in January, and another storm in Feb, that could put us at climo or above.

Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15.

January 6 Update - Slightly Lower Expectations in the lowlands and/or east of Route 15 While I would never cancel an El Nino winter for the mid-Atlantic, as of Jan 6, we've missed a big opportunity in the lowlands to get towards my expectations of an above-climo winter. West of route 15, however, is still very much on track and can meet or even exceed my snowfall forecast. But east of 15 in the low lands and coastal plan, we're facing an uphill battle to even reach climo. Of course we can still reach it in one big storm. The chances of 1 big KU is still higher as it's ever been. The STJ is on steroids and is as relentless as I have ever seen it. But we've lacked cold air and while we might get some more of that in the coming weeks, our window of opportunity is shrinking and fast. Especially with a projected late-Jan thaw, before a February reload with the SSWE. We NEED February to go on an absolute tear to get above climo, and if it doesn't happen, we will fall short. Maybe not in the mountains, which will still do fine, but definitely for the low lands east of 15. Sorry if my thoughts seem disorganized, I'm writing this while watching my 2 year old daughter run circles around me. She's going stir crazy. We need snow... BAD. While I'm going to officially grade myself on my original forecast, I created a new map to reflect my expectations going forward. No change west of 15, but east of 15 I'm cutting amounts by 25-30% (with an extra 20% siting penalty on DCA). Whether we reach climo at the main airport sites is now 50/50.

I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days.

Pouring rain here @clskinsfan hard to believe you’re only a 40 min drive west of me and you’re rippin and I’m weepin

The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days...

Euro was the best, but it wasn't good. All models were pretty bad

All rain here too. Calling it 0.2” total of snow/sleet mix

Makes sense that there’d be a lag

Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on

Point taken. So maybe we don’t torch during 4 and 5 this time

Exactly. Our window of opportunity for accumulation is closing, if not already closed

I’m just inside that pink line on the SE. I think they’re being little too generous with that area

The good news in the LR is that the MJO (at least in GEFS) races through phases 4-5 within a few days to a week or so, then we should see it get back into P7 by late Jan. So maybe we get a window of opportunity between Jan 15-20, and again towards the end of the month into early feb. Plus the SSWE is actually in progress, so increased blocking throughout late Jan - Most of Feb

Not sure what he is trying to say…?

Mostly sleet, with some light snow mixed in Back inside enjoying hot chocolate with the wife and kid

Yep that lull killed us. It was all snow even under lightest returns. One flake per 10 cubic feet lol