Terpeast

6z had nothing in E Loudoun right? 2” line back over me now. Let’s hope its the start of a good trend with NW AR seeing a nice surprise in their backyards ETA it’s 39.6 here. Sunny, dews at 21

It could swing back our way if the 850 LLJ was overforecasted and the qpf is heavier on the front end. But i’m not exactly holding my breath. It would be a nice surprise.

Looking at soundings, probably

Yea, I've been ignoring the GEM, even the ensembles. Biased way too cold

All ens models agree on a colder window between Jan 15 and Jan 20. 850mb temps will be below normal during those 5-6 days. Now the question is, can we get a well-timed wave passing over us within that window? Probably not at the beginning since that'll be the FROPA bringing colder air. But can it happen in the middle or at the end? I don't see a discrete SS wave in the 24h precip anomaly nor MSLP anomaly panels... at least not yet. Too far out to answer that question for now.

This is one of those events where we don't really know what's going to happen until the precip actually starts coming down.

So would I. This has morphed into a wintry mix event with that warm layer at 850mb. Let's hope the southerly winds are less strong than forecast so we could hold off the changeover.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a coating to an inch, and ice accumulations of a light glaze.* WHERE...Stafford, Eastern Loudoun and Northwest Prince William Counties.* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to begin as snow and sleet between 7 and 10 AM. Precipitation will change to freezing rain between 10 AM and 1 PM, then rain after 1 PM. Precipitation is expected to end during the early evening.

Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8 for 6 months, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

0 line 850 keeps jumping around on the 3k

It counts. I have ice in the creek behind my house

It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

By the time the MJO runs its course through 4-6, it’ll be late Jan. If it doesn’t reload back at 4, we still have a chance. But with that rug pull on tomorrow’s storm, I’m not so sure about above normal snowfall this year. Could still happen with 1 well timed wave with just enough cold air. We do have that STJ going for us.

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC.

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago

Reading between the lines, could be 0.5-2” just east of 15 but west of IAD

From LWX Winter Storm Watches remain in effect along and west of US-15. Snow totals also increased a bit for the higher elevations of northern MD, particularly along Parr`s Ridge where the Winter Storm Watch was expanded into Northern Baltimore County. A decision on whether to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning or Advisories will be made later this morning. Advisories are expected to be issued today for the tier of counties east of the current watches. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, including the Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Watch area. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-6" along and northwest of a line from Spruce Knob to Winchester to Westminster. Between that line and US- 15 snow/sleet amounts could vary between 1-3". Between US-15 and I- 95 in Virginia, and east of Parr`s Ridge in Maryland snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch.

Dipped to 19.4. First sub-20 this year

20.1 low

LWX did up my high end potential to 4” as the 90th percentile. Before it was around 3-3.5”. Can’t complain about the 18z/0z trends Still thinking 1.5-2” before flip

I hope the gfs isn’t right, but it did get colder at the surface.

And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate

Thats what I’m hoping for - that the neg AO blocking overrides the MJO and gets cold over us, and when the cold relaxes, we get into the favorable mjo phases and keep blocking up top

37/21. Feels like a normal winter day

Is it like that for 3k too?