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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. LWX did up my high end potential to 4” as the 90th percentile. Before it was around 3-3.5”. Can’t complain about the 18z/0z trends Still thinking 1.5-2” before flip
  2. I hope the gfs isn’t right, but it did get colder at the surface.
  3. And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate
  4. Thats what I’m hoping for - that the neg AO blocking overrides the MJO and gets cold over us, and when the cold relaxes, we get into the favorable mjo phases and keep blocking up top
  5. 37/21. Feels like a normal winter day
  6. A degree or so in F is noise. Nothing has changed today. Still time to bleed colder and the mesos can catch that better than the globals. Also, higher thumpy qpf will help, not hurt. 18z is a bit lighter than 12z
  7. Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb
  8. I think they’re hedging on either 5” snow or 0.25” ice. The latter more likely further south. But this doesn’t scream ice storm to me
  9. Check LWX. Hoisted watch for west of 15 I’m just a few miles east. Likely going to get an advisory closer in
  10. Just checked, its a smidge better. Probably noise
  11. Mild just 3 days then cold, if going by that op run This is the kind of warminista cherry picking that really grinds my gears. A lot of that goes on in the NYC forum (not naming names)
  12. Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now…
  13. Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific
  14. Why are we even looking at op runs 10 days out? They couldn’t even get it right at 5 days for this Saturday’s storm
  15. 12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix)
  16. 12Z nam gives me 3-4", which I think is the boom scenario for mby. Bust would obviously be a mix to rain scenario.
  17. LR looks good, but I’m worried about the MJO trending stronger in the warm phases. I hope that’s wrong, but if it isn’t it might interfere with The Look. We want it to stay weak enough.
  18. Low of 32, now 38. Nothing falling
  19. It drew a line right over us 5 days ago. We want that line to be 50-100 miles south of us so we’re still good even if it trended north even a little
  20. I think 1-3” before the flip is a reasonable call Loudoun-MoCo and west. Fairfax county might struggle to reach an inch. Higher elevations or west of 81 may see 2-4” locally 5” Best we can hope for is that thermals tick a bit colder and we hold the flip off an extra hour or two
  21. Yeah we should start looking at mesos now, its 60 hours till game time. CMC - careful what you wish for. Brutal cutoff in snow amounts. I’d prefer a more uniform thump for most of us even if the jack is less snow. Lets save the biggie for the better pattern up ahead
  22. Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at least
  23. Looking at the 0z nam and 18z gfs just now… I feel that trailing vort might do some weird things if it gets closer to the backside
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