LWX did up my high end potential to 4” as the 90th percentile. Before it was around 3-3.5”. Can’t complain about the 18z/0z trends
Still thinking 1.5-2” before flip
And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate
Thats what I’m hoping for - that the neg AO blocking overrides the MJO and gets cold over us, and when the cold relaxes, we get into the favorable mjo phases and keep blocking up top
A degree or so in F is noise. Nothing has changed today. Still time to bleed colder and the mesos can catch that better than the globals.
Also, higher thumpy qpf will help, not hurt. 18z is a bit lighter than 12z
Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb
Mild just 3 days then cold, if going by that op run
This is the kind of warminista cherry picking that really grinds my gears. A lot of that goes on in the NYC forum (not naming names)
LR looks good, but I’m worried about the MJO trending stronger in the warm phases. I hope that’s wrong, but if it isn’t it might interfere with The Look. We want it to stay weak enough.
I think 1-3” before the flip is a reasonable call Loudoun-MoCo and west. Fairfax county might struggle to reach an inch. Higher elevations or west of 81 may see 2-4” locally 5”
Best we can hope for is that thermals tick a bit colder and we hold the flip off an extra hour or two
Yeah we should start looking at mesos now, its 60 hours till game time.
CMC - careful what you wish for. Brutal cutoff in snow amounts. I’d prefer a more uniform thump for most of us even if the jack is less snow. Lets save the biggie for the better pattern up ahead
Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed
Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at least