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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I’ve only seen measureable snow twice and both were half an inch or less. Leesburg or west of 15 is probably better than Ashburn, but coming from Vienna, Ashburn probably will do better in i-95 fall line setups like this one
  2. Terpeast
    Awesome, thanks for putting that together. If this does verify, its going to be a nailbiter out here.
  3. Terpeast
    Not sure it’s necessarily trending warmer, but rather just moving things faster
  4. Terpeast
    I don’t love that 0c line running over my house, but I’m more interested in the trend
  5. Terpeast
    Still 5 days out. Let’s hope this holds serve at least.
  6. Terpeast
    We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now.
  7. Terpeast
    I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it.
  8. Terpeast
    I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles
  9. Terpeast
    Makes me think that storms will try to follow that baroclinic zone off the VA/NC coast NE-ward (if you've been paying attention to SST and t2m maps in that area, you know what I'm talking about)
  10. Terpeast
    op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132
  11. Terpeast
    I think a faster jump to the coast actually helps us
  12. Terpeast
    Me too. We have so little wiggle room and we can't afford a slight north jog. 18z gfs just gave us a bit more breathing room
  13. Terpeast
  14. Terpeast
    For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm
  15. Terpeast
    Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency
  16. Terpeast
    Wowwww
  17. Terpeast
    Fall line gonna be close
  18. Terpeast
    I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet.
  19. Terpeast
    Interesting. So how do we use that information when comparing the GEFS with op GFS and other models? Is the GEFS better at shorter lead times and less so at longer lead times (10-15+ days)? Or if the op GFS takes a different track than the GEFS mean, do we lean more on the op GFS?
  20. Terpeast
    Wait, is that really true?!
  21. Terpeast
    Light rain now
  22. Terpeast
    Agree. The panel brooklyn posted would be the likely cutter that sets up the 50 low under the block and the next wave could undercut the TPV. It’s a great setup. Loaded with potential What’s more, the 50/50 would also help sustain the block long enough for the potential to play out
  23. Terpeast
    I’ll record a trace as well
  24. Terpeast
    Oof. My TT still hasn’t updated
  25. Terpeast
    SLP track similar to 0z eps, except surface high is stronger on 12z
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