Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Yeah, that’s when the colder air was supposed to come. That was always the first step. The real problem is whether it’s cold enough. It may need to come in waves to get it there
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0.38” yesterday and 0.15” so far today. 46
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Best spot for snow vacation home within 4 hours of NOVA
Terpeast replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Good research, and useful for when I retire and buy a place in the mountains. -
It’s not that bad. Not a terrible look at all once Canada gets a chance to cool down until then
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Canadian ensembles see it, too... if not a day earlier. They mostly skipped the Jan 3 perfect track rainstorm though (suppressed SE)
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That’s been on my radar as well. Cold air availability is much better then (as long as it doesn’t trend warmer)
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Gfs ensembles building W canadian ridge into Alaska becoming more -epo ish. It will be fine, so everyone take a breath. Let Jan 3 go. we can’t win them all.
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It looks better after the 4th so far (the cold air)
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Yeah, 2 runs in a row of this, and I’m starting to think that we’re paying the price of the canadian torch. Onto the next one.
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The BL got even warmer this run, while 850s got colder
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534 line way north, though. No dice
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12z a bit south, 850s bit cooler. BL still torched on the onset. We’ll see if it helps the backend
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Everyone in the NYC forum and many in the MA and NE forums are starting to do the same
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To lighten up the mood with a non-serious comment... that same run does drop a couple inches of slush imby. Snowshoe gets 2 ft+ Chase anyone?
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Ignoring the surface panel for a second - The 850 low tracks just underneath us. 700 mb low right overhead or just underneath if you’re north of DCA. thicknesses are 534-540 This is a mostly snow look. It may indeed start out as rain initially as there’s a trowal with ~0 air at 850 and a warmer BL, but with heavier rates on the backside with a north wind, that’s going to be snow. I think the surface depiction of ptypes are wrong. At least 50% wrong on the backside.
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Rain, 43
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Unremarkable xmas weather, high of 55 and now down to 41. Cloudy. At least it’s not a 70 degree torchmas
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That was close.
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FWIW 12z op gfs shows a bomb off the coast Jan 3. BL a tad too warm verbatim, but it’s very close. Jan 5-6 wave a bit weaker, but with better cold air. I think I’d rather have it switch places. Weaker wave with marginal air, then bombs away on Jan 5. Usual disclaimer: it’s the op gfs so this analysis is mostly just for fun
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This morning’s ensembles show something on Jan 4-6, something coming off the gulf with cold-enough temps. Still a long ways away, lets see if that potential holds. Btw, Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! Happy Holidays all!
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At least its not teasing us with 10-15” or 50%+ chance of 3”+ on day 15 like it did all winter last year
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That’s what I think, we (not just us but everyone) get a CC penalty against our overall snow. For now I think its somewhere around 15-20% but may grow bigger. I’m not changing my outlook, but if we end up getting nothing from the Jan 1-10 window of opportunity, then I think my 15% chance of a blockbuster season is off the table. Still have a shot at above climo. Impressive signal of SSWE on all models, so things could get fun mid-Jan onwards
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I suspect gfs is too warm at the surface for Jan 2, euro is colder. But too far out for these details. Still keeping an eye on
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CMC is following gfs trend for Jan 1…
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Good post. I’m not overly concerned with temps up there even if they are record levels. Just a small change in the ridge orientation will bring cold (yes, even modified cp airmass is cold enough for snow in the MA). Snowcover will improve drastically across the northern half of the CONUS with the xmas cutter, too. Then we flip colder on around the 29th, then game on.
