Terpeast

I suspect gfs is too warm at the surface for Jan 2, euro is colder. But too far out for these details. Still keeping an eye on

CMC is following gfs trend for Jan 1…

Good post. I’m not overly concerned with temps up there even if they are record levels. Just a small change in the ridge orientation will bring cold (yes, even modified cp airmass is cold enough for snow in the MA). Snowcover will improve drastically across the northern half of the CONUS with the xmas cutter, too. Then we flip colder on around the 29th, then game on.

I see 3 possibilities between Jan 1 and Jan 8. The first is a long shot because it’s suppressed and OTS at this moment, but still time for it to change. Recent gfs run trended closer to the coast actually. If we could get better spacing vs the storm before it, it might actually turn into something. Second is Jan 3-4, a weak slider (you can see it on the mslp anomaly panel on the ensembles). Third is Jan 6-8, a more sig wave that Bob Chill was talking about wrt gulf moisture feed. It’s also on the mslp anomaly panel. Those are the 3 to watch.

Had him on ignore so I had to manually show his post to see what the context was. Looks like I missed the whole “party” lol

Good recall. They’re trying to have it both ways

Yeah they’re saying that models will correct warmer as polar air modifies moving south. That may be true, but the models are already accounting for that and we don’t need it colder than “cold enough” else we risk suppression.

And don’t sleep on the low op runs are trying to develop on Jan 1. For now its too far SE by 200 miles, but that kind of range is nothing for a D9 threat

The turn to colder temps is still on the 28-29th, all ensembles support this. That has remained unchanged for some time

Pass. I’m not a fan of mixed events. Give me a clean snow event and I’m happy. Even if it’s just a couple of inches. But if it’s a midwest low with a front end thump to dry slot with minor mixing, that’s pretty acceptable to me.

Funny thing is this December feels colder than last Dec outside of that arctic shot.

Haha, I remember that! I was yelling at the TV for not seeing that the storm was coming north, not OTS

Low of 27.7. Loving this “torch”!

Ya, you're right, that makes sense. Even on my own temp outlook map, I have NYC north under much warmer anomalies than I do for us here.

Canceling winter over +20 departures in Canada, because source region

Just looked at the models today. Not much change, I like what I'm seeing. I'm sticking with my outlook. I have no idea what the NYC subforum is so down about. They should be excited. Reading them, you'd think we're in a nina -PNA +NAO torch.

Makes sense. And late jan into feb is right in our wheelhouse. I wasn’t even expecting a HECS to occur before that, but it will be nice to catch a couple of minor/moderate events before late Jan

Only thing I’m checking is when we shift to a colder pattern - latest models show this on the 29th. I think that’s been consistent and no can kick, right?

26 low

It can work if a wave pushes off eastward towards us from a W trough that undercuts the -epo/-nao

My ignore list just got longer

Yeah I was thinking the same, but sub 30 degree here. Lots of 24s, 26s, etc. 26 low here this morning.

High of 41, blustery

Have to agree there. They seemed to have nailed Dec

You’ll be fine. You’ll be back for the big one if its gonna happen