Terpeast

Okay here goes, back in the game. Dusting off my research skills and we'll see how it goes. Outlook is based on 2 things: - Backward looking indicators using historical analogs for La Nina, +QBO, -PDO, -IOD, and high solar activity - Forward looking indicators such as atlantic SSTs and wildcards like high stratosphere vapor content (Hunga Tonga) My best analogs are: - 2000-01 (no surprise) - 2011-12 - 1985-86 I've also looked at 2017-18 and 2008-09, but didn't put a whole lot of weight on them. I was going to look at hurricane activity and years of low ACE, but I threw that out the window since things have been picking up in the atlantic. My DFJ maps using my analogs: Commentary: I expect La Nina to maintain moderate through January and then weaken into March, when everything also trends neutral. This outlook also banks on a milder than normal November, then as the -IOD trends toward neutral, the winter will become milder (especially February) as we go on after a cold start. Just based on these analogs alone, this is not supposed to be a productive winter. BUT... based on recent trends in the stratosphere and model forecasts, there's a chance that we may get a little bit of help from a negative -NAO if and whenever the pacific cooperates. The opposing factor is high solar activity and +QBO, but we can have a decent winter despite those (e.g. 13-14 & 14-15). I don't see the entire eastern half of the CONUS being colder than normal, but stronger signal seems to be in the upper midwest and pacific northwest. Also see a strong signal of above normal temps around the 4 corners in the west (as I expected). I also think we go dry or near normal precip almost across the board, except maybe OH valley / midwest. And the part you're most interested in... Mid-atlantic Snowfall First, let's talk storm tracks. I see primarily cutters and clippers, some suppressed tracks, and I expect more than a few miller Bs to blow up off the EC and drop the hammer on NYC & north. One of those may very well be historic. (NYC-Boston corridor - watch out, make sure your roofs are in good shape!) As for this sub, I think slightly below average snowfall is the best we're gonna do. Unfortunately, there's a fair chance that we'll get a dud like 2011-12. I'm leaning towards a combo of 99-00/00-01 and maybe even a 85-86, which would be decent for us. Snow Predictions: - DCA: 7-12" - IAD: 9-15" - BWI: 10-16" Temp Predictions: - Nov: +2 - Dec: -2 - Jan: -1 - Feb: +3 - Mar: 0

My inner weenie is rearing his head… I had a dream last night. It was nighttime. My family was playing with my toddler in our living room, near our bay window. Then I look down at my phone checking the weather, and we’re in the middle of a surprise advisory event. I look up and out the bay window, and our front yard is well lit and covered in snow. Not a ton, but just enough to cover the grass, 2 maybe 3 inches. It’s still snowing lightly, with very tiny pixie flakes. … then I woke up.

Just bought this at Wegmans today. Drinking one tonight, perfect weather for this.

Given how chilly it’s been lately, I almost want an above normal November to give the pattern a chance to reset and give us BN Dec-Jan

2.02” total, high 52

1.62”, 55 deg

That’s scary, hope your youngest recovers quickly.

A local qpf max right over dc metro? Not something we see everyday.

Really efficient rain producer. Radar returns are sporadic/clear, but it’s a drizzlard out there.

Looks like 1” like most here. Big af dry slot… I don’t like dry slots even in all rain events. Only time it’s good is when it cuts precip off just when a changeover happens

Another band incoming from SE

First wisps of Ian up overhead

Leaning towards this kind of thinking/temp departures, too.

Having lived through Ike in Houston in 2008, Ian’s radar imagery gives me goosebumps.

That’s not gonna fly with my Vietnamese wife. She’d be shivering in her thick wool coat at those temps haha

Low 46. Forgot to turn on the heating before bed, and it was 69 in the house this morning.

Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people.

Hope it all stays intact for them. Looks like serious flooding if wind isn’t the main issue.

Looks like guidance is split in 2 schools of thought, one having Ian fizzle in the carolinas and the other driving it up the EC. Must depend on the interaction with the trough

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either. We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere.

I’m not sure that it does. There are a lot of “if”s to make that happen.

Already seeing blue skies behind the line. Barely a trace. Think I got screwed again

Low of 44, ashburn