Terpeast
-
Posts
5,360 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
Cloudy, 36. No precip, but sure has a winter vibe. Nice surprise for the NE part of this sub! Anyone with more than a trace? Maybe we can call it the first “cumulative” inch and get on with it! (Or is that my inner weenie talking?)
-
One point to add, we’re progged to get into phase 7 around Dec 12-15. That hasn’t changed, so I’m not seeing a can-kick there. Also to reiterate, some of our biggest EC snows started as a wave in the N Pac while the MJO was in phase 7.
-
The plot thickens. It may take a while to work its way down though.
-
Grats to those who saw flakes today. Sunny here lol
-
Deck and car was wet, pavement kinda dry. I assume it was rain because I never went below 36 for the night
-
Thanks, psu. I was kinda surprised at the reaction. Maybe they forgot about that analysis I did a few months ago. And yes we’d need modeling resources if we really wanted to dynamically simulate what a past storm would like today, but we don’t have those resources. Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled tracking…
-
Dry here. 37
-
Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes
-
@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66. The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. Do we take this chance? I would.
-
Any trend in timing?
-
47, cloudy.
-
Yep. Not now. But around then. We can see the STJ start loading its ammo and taking aim at the SE US on recent runs, especially 12z gfs.
-
Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks even better -
Judging from the gradients near the dateline, forcing should strengthen around the dateline and then drift a bit east after Dec 17 or so
-
Consider the source. Smart guy, but heavily biased towards persistence in favor of CC. He will be proven wrong for a time eventually. He has a tendency to cherry pick the warmest analogs for any given pattern. First it was 2015-16, then it was 1997-98, and on it goes.
-
8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg
-
I like what these VP forecasts are showing. Nice trend. I don’t agree that 8-1-2 necessarily means warm in the east if the MEI stays under 1.2 (iow the nino doesn’t go super)
-
Still doesn’t look like a palm-trees-can-grow-in-NYC torch to me
-
So if we get a ssw dec 25-jan 15, how long will it take to see the effects in the troposphere? Around late Jan or early Feb?
-
Bluewave talking about palm trees growing in NYC
-
I’ve found that MJO 7 is actually a precursor to some of the biggest EC snowstorms. So I would love for us to get to 7 sooner than later, and keep the forcing around or just east of the dateline. MJO 7 may be a mild look in December, but think that changes later into the winter.
-
Right. I mean, yes there are 30c ssts in the MC, but there are also 30c ssts in nino 4 and part of 3.4. Once the mjo wave propagates through the MC now, the forcing will move over the warmest ssts in the nino areas.
-
In MJO 4-6 for only 10 days. Quite brief. Once we get to 7, things will start to get interesting.
-
Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”
-
0.7” still raining
