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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Remember last year we were seeing tons of snow on the controls, only for that to disappear towards D0. We may not see any snow on the controls this year, but we’ll see if something sneaks up on us inside D3-4
  2. Terpeast
    Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself.
  3. Terpeast
    Down to 28 for the low. 32 now
  4. Terpeast
    That’s consistent with MJO 3-4 in the RMM forecast. You say RMM isn’t much use, but I see it in good agreement with the VP forecast. Also worth noting that the max -VP anomaly is further north into the bay of bengal rather than within 5s-5n of the equator. I don’t think the 30c pool in the wpac will have as much influence as nino 4, which will start to dominate. We see that in the RMM chart because it kills the MJO wave before it goes into the 4-6 areas. That’s a nino pattern.
  5. Terpeast
    Will be interesting to see what the next MEI value is. Maybe we’ll finally put the “background nina” concerns to rest.
  6. Terpeast
    We shouldn’t even be looking at op solutions past day 6. If you must, look at the run to run trends going back 4-5 runs. Then you’ll see why.
  7. Terpeast
    Also 25.9 for the low
  8. Terpeast
    Nice work, we’re on the same page. My outlook is pretty similar.
  9. Terpeast
    I skimmed through. I think he’s splitting hairs. Would have to read it again with fresh eyes though
  10. Terpeast
    SON should come in at 1.7 next week. If 3 and 3.4 stay up, OND should come in at 1.9 and that’ll likely be the trimonthly peak.
  11. Terpeast
    The east based or dual forcing scenario isn’t a convincing one to me, yet. We still have a huge pool of >30c ssts east of the dateline. Cherry picking model runs aside, I think the mean forcing throughout the winter will be on/near the pool with the warmest ssts (and where the largest sst anomalies are).
  12. Terpeast
    My neck hurts… from the Webb whiplash
  13. Terpeast
    Happy thanksgiving ladies and gents!
  14. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think today's model runs are responding to this change.
  15. Terpeast
    Ensembles still show an active STJ, even if its not directly over our house. Op runs will flip flop in the med-long range, one will show dry another will show wet. That’s all we can take from now
  16. Terpeast
    My bar is 3 trimonthlies above 2.0 for a super. Even if we got to that point, I don’t think the atmospheric response will reflect a super. More like high end moderate to strong.
  17. Terpeast
    76-77 was cold, but it was also dry
  18. Terpeast
    The recent WWB plus this: Only bolsters my confidence that the nino will overpower the -PDO, and we’ll see it mostly uncoupled even if it stays negative.
  19. Terpeast
    2.36” final total
  20. Terpeast
    That line pushed me over 2" 2.14" with some leftovers to come
  21. Terpeast
    And don't forget the big MJO 8-1-2 event back in the spring that kicked off the first WWB. I think some are holding onto a certain bias that ignores recent 8-1-2 incursions.
  22. Terpeast
    Torrential now
  23. Terpeast
    Not quite, but maybe it should have. PDO was positive that winter, but came after a triple nina -PDO just like this year. QBO was positive though. Solar max, too (we’re close to it now).
  24. Terpeast
    I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec.
  25. Terpeast
    1.2”
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