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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    CMC definitely trended SE, as has the GFS. Let's hope this is the compromise that the Euro gets to
  2. Terpeast
    Another 2-4er on the GFS
  3. Terpeast
    deamplified PNA, pos tilt, dry surface
  4. Terpeast
    it's early, but I think it's a hold
  5. Terpeast
    TPV bit stronger and a touch further north
  6. Terpeast
    Looks similar to yesterday's 18z
  7. Terpeast
    At 57, TPV is further northwest Out west s/w similar, maybe a touch deeper/sharper
  8. Terpeast
    looks like a 2-4er to me
  9. Terpeast
    I bought some extra strength high-ABV craft brews for the weekend... to either celebrate, or to comfort myself.
  10. Terpeast
    In this case, yes.
  11. Terpeast
    Checked LWX AFD this morning... they are being careful
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah, I noticed the Canadian had it, as did previous Euro runs when they had the storm closer in. It's probably something else.
  13. Terpeast
    Still odd, because in that run, the TPV phases somewhat with the trailing piece, but in a previous 12z run yesterday they didn't phase as I pointed out - still same result. Either way, I think there's some error here. But I'm still worried that other guidance is missing that trailing piece or its strength. I just hope that Euro's bias in hanging too much energy in that trailing piece is at work.
  14. Terpeast
    This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20
  15. Terpeast
    Ok thought it was too early for the 6z ens. I’m discounting the outliers on both sides (cmc on one, euro on the other). I still think the op Euro is too suppressed at least for now. Things may change once the cutter gets out of here.
  16. Terpeast
    Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true
  17. Terpeast
    That took more than 9 days! Like way more lol
  18. Terpeast
    Looks to me as the spread is showing a potentially slower system with more stragglers behind the main group
  19. Terpeast
    Gee, who could have that been? Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat
  20. Terpeast
    Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol)
  21. Terpeast
    Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential
  22. Terpeast
    0z GEFS almost no difference at 120
  23. Terpeast
    Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian)
  24. Terpeast
    I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later
  25. Terpeast
    Not only that, but also the track and how the block evolves
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