Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Looks like 1-2" imby with 4-6+ along the blue ridge
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They look the same to me. No real can kick. But they don't look all that great either.
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HRRR soundings suggest temps at 33-35 F west of I-95 towards route 15
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Looks like the 6z nam 3k had a bit of a hiccup. 12z looks a lot like 0z, just less overdone. Many people west of 95 might see some flakes if up early enough, higher elevations (including Mt PSU) may see an inch or two, more west of the blue ridge
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Yeah, I don’t think this is another 97-98 because the pac forcing is way different. It’s just the NA is too warm now, need to give it time to cool down
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Track is an app runner. No cold high to hold it off the coast
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I’m still not buying. BL temps too warm. I’m looking at TT and it appears most models took a step back with cold air progression
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Recent mjo got can kicked a few days to a week, though. But December was always going to be warm anyway. Still expecting Jan-Feb to be colder (near normal give or take a couple degrees)
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I remember, my cousin and I took a jebwalk out in that one. Will never forget it. And then it didn’t snow at all through the entire december, and we were complaining “it never snows here anymore”. Then…
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Well said man
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I think the NAM is overdone, but it sure feels good to be tracking something while it’s only dec 8. And we’re not even in a good pattern right now. Totally different vibe than last year
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Latest LWX AFD acknowledged snow might fall at lower elevations, but unlikely to accumulate with temps at 35-36. Let’s see if we trend colder though.
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I was going to say that. So yep, bring it on!
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Not saying this is a credible threat, but in order for this to pan out, yes we’d need that secondary LP to develop while the h5 trough axis lags behind fropa
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Yeah we’d need more of a -epo this early. It may not matter as much in Jan/Feb though
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That’s what I’ve been saying for a while. Some of our biggest snowstorms started as a wave in the north pacific while the mjo was in 7
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I think that’s the only part we’re NOT on the same page about
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Maybe its trying to resolve downsloping and upslope. Probably not correct verbatim, but if it was, I’d get a couple inches as well
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Better now than Jan/Feb
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I’d take it
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Phase 7 by 15th (give or take). Still no can-kick
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Yeah, the recent convection must have cooled those waters. I think the maritime content had 30c but those were shallow. In nino 4 east of the dateline though, the warm waters run much deeper and have more energy to feed convection in mjo 7-8-1. I predicted in my outlook that all mjo phases would be wide open especially as the IOD faded. Well, the IOD faded a bit a month early, so its good that mjo is going through 4-6 outside of prime climo. It was to be expected though, rather than be seen as bad news. We just have to wait the mjo out and the pieces will be set where we want them to be.
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Yeah, I was so sick of getting hopes up with the gfs last year. I’m glad they fixed the damned thing
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Was the GFS updated after last winter? It hasn’t shown much digital snow like it did last year (very wrongly so ofc)
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West of rt 15 may see something, but east of that, I’m not as confident. (I’m 5 miles east of 15 as the crow flies)
