Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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For now the northern stream is very fast and strong, but was probably well forecasted for December. Still think it’ll calm down and give the STJ more room once we get to mjo 7 and beyond
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Yeah its one of the key things I look for in a nino, a trough in the SW isn’t a bad thing as long as we have a ridge over the top to bring colder air to us with an active STJ south of us. If all model ensembles are still showing this inside day 10, we’ll have something to track
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Classic split flow pattern out west
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31.3 low
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Low of 23
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Looking at the ensemble means, the first half of dec looks slightly AN but not by much. Couple degrees F above here and there. Some 3-5 day periods 5-10 F above, other periods near or slightly BN.
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Yeah you’re right. We’re in pretty much uncharted territory. I just don’t think we’ll see another Dec 2015 or that the PDO will overpower the nino, especially as it recently strengthened. There aren’t many similar years to this, except 65-66 and 09-10. So that’s where I looked for clues. You looked for clues in different places, and that’s fair.
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Same for now. The big dog usually comes late Jan thru Feb
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Low of 19.8
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Raindance’s official December forecast: +9 to +12 everywhere east of the Mississippi river. Let’s run a verification check on New Year’s day. If he’s right, we eat our shoe. If he’s wrong, let’s fund his remedial mathematics class.
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I have to agree with @stadiumwave after looking at the individual years and the blend of 3 years. the smoothing looks like there’s something there, but in this case, no. That’s why we have to be careful about combining years into a composite map, especially if there are so few years in the blend. It’s fine if they all show spatial similarities, but if they’re so different that they don’t individually match the blend, we’d have to toss the blend due to small sample size. PS. This advice goes for me, too. I’ve been known to blend liberally on small sample sizes…
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Was off for DCA by one day. But missed RIC by a large margin
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Sounds like most MD folks cashed in with at least a trace today
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Yeah this is one to watch. Just need a little separation between the lead vort and this wave. Ops still all over the place on H5 though.
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Btw did anyone see flurries in central MD or near the blue ridge in VA? I saw clouds with heavy virga that appeared to reach the ground to the N and W of me (Ashburn)
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28. Windy. Frigid!
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Only made it to 38 here so far, and I’m 10 miles from IAD. I think IAD has been outperforming most of the area for high temps by 3-5 degrees most of the year.
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Let me ask you this. are you saying that the ocean-atmosphere being uncoupled causes the El Nino to become stronger? This is where you lost me when I’m trying to follow your reasoning.
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All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes
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High 47 today, down to 35. With that wind, it’s cold!
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And snowplows parked down the road from me, partially blocking my way out.
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No precip here. Fell to 31, but rebounded to 45. Windy
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Yeah we may have to wait, we do have some wiggle room in an el nino year, but it would be really nice to get on the board in Dec than waiting until mid Jan
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Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years.
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Normally I love Don’s posts, but I’m not sold on 1991 as a top analog. 1972, sure. But in 1991 there was no blocking wall to wall (except for a few days), and it looks like we’ll get plenty of blocking this winter.
