Terpeast

31 for the low, now 33. Very frosty

Uh oh, JB is gonna be all over this… https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/travel/worlds-newest-island-forms-in-japanese-archipelago-scn/index.html

I think we’re going to see crazy swings like this this winter, given all the mixed signals we’re seeing now

Its a pretty +pdo look

43, rain Nice to see precip/radar overperforming vs models

Yeah.. I don’t really follow 850mb wind anoms in the tropics because all the models show something completely different even for the same runs. What gets posted here is often different from what I see on the model sites. So I gave up on following this

Light rain, 46

The pacific is much better now than it was a couple months ago. It’s not ideally where we want it to be yet, obviously. But it’s slowly been getting better. If it backtracks in Dec-Jan though, this winter is going to be an uphill battle For now, we’re still in the game.

Yeah, we don't want to gamble with that over just perturbing the PV. There's little support for a SSW event though, only 4 ensemble members show it

Only made it to 76 before the clouds moved in from the NW, down to 71 now

Pretty consistent with my outlook

Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on

And that’s not the worst thing. We (well, I) don’t want a super nino. It’s a hit vs miss gamble for one HECS, and if we whiff it’s yet another ratter. Besides the last 3 times we had a super nino, we had triple dip La Ninas right after. So I’m not rooting for a super, personally. And I agree with you that we don’t get there.

I just think it mostly means we’ve peaked. we’ll see about those wwbs east of the dateline starting nov 15, but hard to say if that will move the needle

Only made it to 61 today after hitting 77 yesterday

I don’t know about the NOAA data for real-time monitoring because it’s monthly and I would think there is some kind of lag. I mean if the big pdo rise is not showing in that dataset, it may either mean its a month behind or something isn’t right with their data

Time sensitive - WCS daily PDO holding at -0.88. Looking at the ensembles, I expect it to hold around there or touch -1 again, then rise after that.

Absolutely. It could swing the other way next month, or take its sweet time into getting above 0.5 till January. But then again, I expected it to come in at 0.75 this month and I was wrong. So...

For KIAD, there is a weak positive correlation between snowfall and MEI. It's noisy and mostly a crapshoot, but we can clearly see a few things: - If the MEI is less than -1.0 (stronger Nina), it gets very difficult for us to reach climo or above. Most often we end up with less than climo. - If the MEI is greater than +1.0 (stronger Ninos), we likely get a warm winter overall and MAYBE with a HECS that pads snowfall totals. No HECS? Ratter. - If the MEI is between -1.0 and +1.0, it really can go either way. Notice that if we are between +0.5 and +1.2 (which I prefer using as the cut off), our chances for a colder and snowier winter go up. MEI +1.2 or higher: MEI between +0.5 and +1.2 So this recent drop in MEI probably precludes us from getting over +1.2, which may be a good thing in avoiding a mild winter for the CONUS, but I think we will need to get a more favorable nino profile in the pacific to get a colder winter than the last 8 years.

Great job, I think we're tracking along the same lines for our outlooks. I have mby at 60% chance of above snowfall climo, so you're about 10% more bullish than I am

And he’s willing to discredit his own work in hopes of getting one. I’m thinking maybe I should have used RONI instead.

And it also came after a triple dip nina (kind of - 85-86 was cold neutral)

Too soon, same thing happened in 1986-87. It’ll probably go back up in the next month, but if it doesn’t, then I’ll probably consider updating my outlook.

It's going to be a noisy day tomorrow. Get ready... (I've already said my piece earlier today)

Sorry @GaWx This is what I used, not the other link. It was a pain to copy the color coded table into my own excel, though.