Terpeast

With aleutian troughing and western & arctic ridging, not much has changed. The general idea is pretty much the same

Yeah, it's the Canadian. Anyway, the 40% this 40% that doesn't really tell us much of anything. The 500mb maps tell a lot more. Are they usually this late in releasing those?

So for my area, basically a 40% chance of AN temps and 40% chance of AN precip. Warmer NE, and equal chances SE

Ok so what's going on with CANSIPS?

Now who's being reductive?

I want my money back!

Yeah, that might explain the two different NAO trends over different time frames. And thanks for raising the point about a cold blob, that would definitely play a role in strengthening the north Altantic jet. Right now, it seems to be there, if not a little displaced southward. Normally it should be NE of newfoundland expanding up towards near Iceland. But it looks south-ish with some noisy mix of gulfstream waters. Not sure what to make of it.

Yeah, food for thought. If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it.

Yeah, even when I was a kid reading LWX AFDs I remember how hard it was to get a -NAO before CC accelerated. But when it happened, it really delivered.

Not sure I buy it yet. I think a big part of it is a +NAO/atlantic decadal cycle and the La Nina base state since the 2016 super nino. Yes, the blocks have been south based, but that's happened plenty of times before. Maybe after we get a few more strong El Ninos and a couple of +PDO seasons, and we still don't get a deep -NAO despite having an -AO, then yeah I'd start buying into this theory.

Lol, we just can't win on xmas eve. Anyway, weeklies are looking good for late nov into early dec. We may follow the pattern of mod-strong ninos with a cold Dec. Let's see what H5 cansips says. What’s funny about xmas is that last year’s was really cold, and we all knew how the rest of the winter turned out. So…

That’s because it is. 3 HECS in one year, where most good winters have only one. H5 pattern cannot get any better than that winter. Pure textbook. And if it weren’t a decent analog this year, nobody would be obsessing about it now.

MEI for 19-20 never got above 0.4 and was down to 0.2 by Jan

33

Yup I saw, it’s a good sign. Before the CFS I thought I was being too bullish in my outlook, but not now. Waiting for 500mb cansips before I release.

Thanks. Kinda hard to understand those maps without the scales

We’re just coming off an 80 degree week. If anything this fall has been above normal so far. I think we will have plenty of opportunities

Isnt the cansips supposed to be out by now?

Was stuck at 52 all day for the high, and now dropped down to 43. Finally radiating well as my area should edit: falling like a rock now. 39

Nice. That will help the PDO

Yeah, the PDO took a step back into the negative range, but I think it's only temporary. After a warming trend, the Okhotsk Sea is cooling again (circled below): And a broad N Pac trough with a healthy aleutian low is on the way (and it's no longer October): Still out in the fantasy range after the back and forth battle between Aleutian troughing and ridging, but we may see the troughing reinforced by a new trough moving off NE Asia into the pac. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. PDO is likely to bounce in the -1.3 to -0.3 range before stagnating towards neutral as the nino takes hold.

Right, if I remember correctly 18-19 wasn’t that warm up here. So its bit of a mixed signal and kind of a wash. If I adjusted 63-64 a few degrees warmer, though, it’s a weak mild signal here.

Strong +IOD shows a signal for an east-displaced GOA trough for all years regardless of ENSO, and a stronger east-based aleutian low for nino years. Cold anomalies would be tilted to the SW than SE. But for the record, I don't think the IOD is a big factor this year. Many of these seasons in both composites are El Ninos much stronger than this one, and I don't think we can separate out the IOD signal from strong ninos.

So you can see how rare this is. I haven't gone back further than the 1950s, but 1986-87 and 2006-07 are also on my analog short list.

Low of 40.5