Terpeast

Shared this in the main nino thread.

I have a feeling that they don't really dig as deep into this stuff as we do, and just lean on nino climatology by default. And they're usually not that far off the mark. Makes me wonder whether factoring in the spaghetti soup of teleconnections is, for lack of a more polite term, a waste of time. (I'm guilty of this too)

Do you mean last month’s MEI being 0.6? I expect the MEI to come in higher this month, but you’re not wrong in that some people read the same dataset and conclude that a strong/super EP nino is on the way while others (including myself) see a more moderate event based on forcing and sst gradients between tropics and mid/high latitudes. Yet others look at the same data and conclude that we are not really in an el nino event based on atmospheric response.

My outlook will be done in november

Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links

Trending in the right direction the past 15 days. Still negative, but not extremely so. Upcoming rex block N of Hawaii should help continue this trend

What site are you using to run these nino3-H5 charts? I’d like to try the same, but using nino4 instead

39. One of the colder mornings so far

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai

Not much except maybe a glimmer of hope that HTHH won’t deliver an +AO death knell. Also worth noting that after a SSW (and/or Strat PV split) back in Feb, mutiple HL blocking episodes ensued for several months afterward lasting through all summer

While 09-10 is a good match for this year... 91-92 is also a good match, especially if HTHH's strat vapor effect is to counter the -QBO to produce +AO (which is TBD). Two vastly different results with similar ENSO/PDO/QBO setups. This winter will be decided by the polar domain, I am certain of it.

As far as the missing cold subsurface in the WPAC, maybe that's not a bad thing? It could indicate a multi-year nino instead of a one-time blast before a return to la nina conditions. Your guess is as good as mine.

We’re still comparing 2023 to other super ninos, which we know isn’t going to happen this year. I’d replace this with a comparison to the moderate/strong nino cohort.

Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with.

43 low

Yeah, true. But if we’re going to have a snowy winter, I want to correctly predict it

Perfect!

When do the November runs come out? Thinking of holding off on my winter outlook till then. Too many moving variables atm

Regarding comparison to 18-19, @brooklynwx99 just presented an open-and-shut case here. Previously, I had 18-19 as one potential analog, but not anymore.

If you were straddling the r/s/mix line, then maybe. Otherwise they’d be even more juiced The Feb 1987 storm would be all rain today, though.

Yeah, agreed. That’s the direction I’m leaning towards atm

Yeah I’ve seen this before, and it’s a great reference to simplify things. But I’m taking a broader Pacific-wide view of the PDO, not only the basin north/NW of Hawaii. I also look at the pdo cycle 1-3 years before each preceding winter analog season to get an idea of how conditions evolved up to each winter. The part you and I agree on is that there will be competing factors this winter, with the -pdo working against us. But I believe the “negativity” of the pdo will weaken, and the basin-wide (or west-leaning) enso will eventually win out. meanwhile, of course we are going to see -pna episodes that’s going to get people here concerned (while its of no surprise to me).

I think that’s where you and I differ a bit. I don’t think the PDO has to flip positive for the MA/SNE to get a decently productive winter. A +PDO, especially if strong, also brings its own set of challenges, like a too-strong aleutian low flooding the CONUS with mild air a la 97-98. It’s a double edged sword, and as the 1960s and 09-10 has proved, we don’t need the PDO to flip in a dramatic manner, just move towards the neutral range.

Amazing, the marine heat wave off Japan is nearly gone. Now lets work on the ssts north/NW of hawaii. This upcoming rex block might help with that, even if it causes a -pna for us in the process.