Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Pretty brisk and gusty but otherwise nice. 60
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A lot of it makes sense, and I agree in large part. But his claim that the autumn has been “much colder” than in recent years doesn’t jive with what I observed last year vs this year. Last autumn was colder. This autumn has been near to slightly above normal. He’s not wrong about the number of coastal storms lately, though.
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PDO is close to neutral now. Troughing north & nw of Hawaii helped bring the PDO up a bit: And as a rex block establishes itself, the trough should deepen due n of Hawaii, which will have an impact on the ssts there. Could this be the thing that finally breaks the nina-like base state in the mid-latitude pac? Time will tell.
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Shared this in the main nino thread.
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I have a feeling that they don't really dig as deep into this stuff as we do, and just lean on nino climatology by default. And they're usually not that far off the mark. Makes me wonder whether factoring in the spaghetti soup of teleconnections is, for lack of a more polite term, a waste of time. (I'm guilty of this too)
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Do you mean last month’s MEI being 0.6? I expect the MEI to come in higher this month, but you’re not wrong in that some people read the same dataset and conclude that a strong/super EP nino is on the way while others (including myself) see a more moderate event based on forcing and sst gradients between tropics and mid/high latitudes. Yet others look at the same data and conclude that we are not really in an el nino event based on atmospheric response.
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My outlook will be done in november
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Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links
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Trending in the right direction the past 15 days. Still negative, but not extremely so. Upcoming rex block N of Hawaii should help continue this trend
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What site are you using to run these nino3-H5 charts? I’d like to try the same, but using nino4 instead
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39. One of the colder mornings so far
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Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai
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Not much except maybe a glimmer of hope that HTHH won’t deliver an +AO death knell. Also worth noting that after a SSW (and/or Strat PV split) back in Feb, mutiple HL blocking episodes ensued for several months afterward lasting through all summer
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While 09-10 is a good match for this year... 91-92 is also a good match, especially if HTHH's strat vapor effect is to counter the -QBO to produce +AO (which is TBD). Two vastly different results with similar ENSO/PDO/QBO setups. This winter will be decided by the polar domain, I am certain of it.
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As far as the missing cold subsurface in the WPAC, maybe that's not a bad thing? It could indicate a multi-year nino instead of a one-time blast before a return to la nina conditions. Your guess is as good as mine.
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We’re still comparing 2023 to other super ninos, which we know isn’t going to happen this year. I’d replace this with a comparison to the moderate/strong nino cohort.
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Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with.
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43 low
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Yeah, true. But if we’re going to have a snowy winter, I want to correctly predict it
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Perfect!
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When do the November runs come out? Thinking of holding off on my winter outlook till then. Too many moving variables atm
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Regarding comparison to 18-19, @brooklynwx99 just presented an open-and-shut case here. Previously, I had 18-19 as one potential analog, but not anymore.
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If you were straddling the r/s/mix line, then maybe. Otherwise they’d be even more juiced The Feb 1987 storm would be all rain today, though.
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Yeah, agreed. That’s the direction I’m leaning towards atm
