Terpeast

QBO came in at -13.58 for Sept. Still falling.

Yeah, I don't think it's best to use past volcanic analogs like Pinatubo in 1991-92 because that was a different type of eruption with sulfur not H2O vapor.

I think we have a good sense of where this nino is going to peak. So it’s time for me to pick my analog years. I’ll be using this criteria: - early nino peakers - MEI between 0.5 and 1.0 - neg qbo - ascending solar/near solar max - neg pdo (even if only slightly so) - warm AMO - any nino that comes after a triple nina Those are just off the top of my head. And then I’ll narrow to a short list of top 5-6 analogs, and adjust them a few degrees warmer if they are older than 1990 and of course, super ninos will be excluded because we almost certainly are not going super.

That’s pretty much it. I shared the above threads because they had the numbers to back it up.

41.5

GaWx in the SE forum sniffed out a partial correlation between BN Oct and BN winters in the SE up to MA. He made a very convincing case to root for a cold Oct over a cold Nov. I’ve also anecdotally observed that cold Novembers usually lead to milder winters especially in ninos.

I think it is a very reasonable winter outlook.

Although I was never on board for super, I was thinking high end strong like 1.8-1.9, but even that seems too ambitious. I think the next 3-monthly ONI value will come in at either 1.4 or 1.5, so that may be the peak value for this nino, with an outside shot at 1.6 if we get a last ditch KW this month or early Nov.

Obviously something is driving these downwelling KWs without significant WWBs.

Picked up 0.07” yesterday. Morning low 44. 62 now

Thats a promising sign, and one we’d prefer to see in October than November

The good thing about the mjo is that once it gets into phase 7, it opens up the possibility for a big EC snowstorm. Look closely at @GaWx charts… the biggest KUs start as waves entering the CONUS when we’re in 7.

There’s a chance it does. As I showed in my mjo field, 4 is still open for business despite current suppression. We’d just have to wait it out.

Excellent post on the MJO by @GaWx! I think what would really help with our winter outlooks is to project which MJO phases will be “open for business”, and we can start with looking at the warmest ssts adjacent to the greatest gradients in the MJO field: Right now, and this is just today’s snapshot, we could say that 1, 2, 4, 7 and 8 could potentially be open for business, or at least get the MJO out of COD for those phases. We probably don’t want 4, but this winter I think we’ll have to deal with short lived incursions into the right side of the graph… wait them out until it rotates back to the left side.

This isn’t an east based nino. 1+2 is outmatched vs 3 and 4 in terms of absolute temperature, and the atmospheric response will reflect that.

New ONI at 1.3 for JAS

Low of 39. Ashburn

Just looking at the MJO phase areas, this could help suppress convection over the MC while aiding it over mjo 1 & 2. Unless we see a weird rebound effect. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

Low of 43

That’s what I’ve been leaning towards. I’ll do a full outlook in November when I get next month’s round of data and tighten up my analog group.

3.4 coming back up, made up almost half of the big Sept drop. Was glad to see the MEI come in at 0.6, which is what I expected. Next reading will probably be around 0.75 as long as 3.4 holds around 1.5 or so

Those charts don’t really make physical sense to me. Maybe just a wavelength shift by season? I saw some interesting correlations between a cold Oct / warm Nov and a cold winter, and vice versa. Think it was GaWx who posted that.

Good discussion in the main El Nino thread under weather and forecasting discussion. Bluewave is dropping value bombs over there.