Terpeast

Although I was never on board for super, I was thinking high end strong like 1.8-1.9, but even that seems too ambitious. I think the next 3-monthly ONI value will come in at either 1.4 or 1.5, so that may be the peak value for this nino, with an outside shot at 1.6 if we get a last ditch KW this month or early Nov.

Obviously something is driving these downwelling KWs without significant WWBs.

Picked up 0.07” yesterday. Morning low 44. 62 now

Thats a promising sign, and one we’d prefer to see in October than November

The good thing about the mjo is that once it gets into phase 7, it opens up the possibility for a big EC snowstorm. Look closely at @GaWx charts… the biggest KUs start as waves entering the CONUS when we’re in 7.

There’s a chance it does. As I showed in my mjo field, 4 is still open for business despite current suppression. We’d just have to wait it out.

Excellent post on the MJO by @GaWx! I think what would really help with our winter outlooks is to project which MJO phases will be “open for business”, and we can start with looking at the warmest ssts adjacent to the greatest gradients in the MJO field: Right now, and this is just today’s snapshot, we could say that 1, 2, 4, 7 and 8 could potentially be open for business, or at least get the MJO out of COD for those phases. We probably don’t want 4, but this winter I think we’ll have to deal with short lived incursions into the right side of the graph… wait them out until it rotates back to the left side.

This isn’t an east based nino. 1+2 is outmatched vs 3 and 4 in terms of absolute temperature, and the atmospheric response will reflect that.

New ONI at 1.3 for JAS

Low of 39. Ashburn

Just looking at the MJO phase areas, this could help suppress convection over the MC while aiding it over mjo 1 & 2. Unless we see a weird rebound effect. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

Low of 43

That’s what I’ve been leaning towards. I’ll do a full outlook in November when I get next month’s round of data and tighten up my analog group.

3.4 coming back up, made up almost half of the big Sept drop. Was glad to see the MEI come in at 0.6, which is what I expected. Next reading will probably be around 0.75 as long as 3.4 holds around 1.5 or so

Those charts don’t really make physical sense to me. Maybe just a wavelength shift by season? I saw some interesting correlations between a cold Oct / warm Nov and a cold winter, and vice versa. Think it was GaWx who posted that.

Good discussion in the main El Nino thread under weather and forecasting discussion. Bluewave is dropping value bombs over there.

Yeah I’m not worried yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on for the next 6 weeks or so.

While the euro didn’t trend in a positive direction, the gfs ensembles show a healthy aleutian low through most of the Oct forecast period. Worth taking into account when considering the competing enso and pdo:

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend.

So a 0% significance means that there is a 100% confidence level that warmer eastern US temp anomalies arise not from random chance, but from the mjo phase 6? if that’s the case, I’m not a fan of the way they use these significance #s. It’s confusing

Well, it must be if they bother showing that map…

Mother’s house in Vienna got 10” in Jan 2018 and 9” in Jan 2022.

Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean?

Agreed. As the 1960s and a winter like 09-10 showed, we don’t need the pdo to flip. We can get away with it being slightly negative