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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Round 2 now
  2. Terpeast
    Same zipcode, didn’t see any. Think the hail was just off to my east
  3. Terpeast
    Huge downpour, was so loud that my zoom meeting commented on it
  4. Terpeast
    Looks good for a target of 1.0 give or take by Dec. Have no expectation of anything higher than 1.5
  5. Terpeast
    Wow, it’s official!
  6. Terpeast
    If legit, that is amazing. Never happened in Sept at this location.
  7. Terpeast
    Some clouds passed through, may prevent IAD from getting to 100. EDIT: Yeah, seems to have fallen back to 97-98. So no dice
  8. Terpeast
    99 imby. Legit heat
  9. Terpeast
    Here’s how it looks now imby
  10. Terpeast
    I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.
  11. Terpeast
    97 imby, dews at 69
  12. Terpeast
    Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot! (selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)
  13. Terpeast
    Tracking a bit behind yesterday, so not sure if we hit 100 today. Still a couple hours of heating left to go and skies are clearer, though
  14. Terpeast
    Because ssts in the WPAC and mid latitudes are warming faster than the tropics, El Nino influence is muted. It would need to get stronger to exert the same influence as weaker ones did in the past. The opposite is true for La Ninas.
  15. Terpeast
    Hence the warning
  16. Terpeast
    I’d compare DCA to BWI, SBY, and EZF though. The lows at DCA are often warmer than all three. BWI is closer to DCA at 59 for the same reason, while SBY and EZF are both in the 56-57 range. Like raindance says, the 60F line is probably down closer to richmond. It’ll take a while for it to creep up, even if locally it gets there first at the river and bay areas.
  17. Terpeast
    We’re most definitely not in the yellow yet. Our recent 15-year average temp is 56.6, and even the last 7 years averages out to 57.3. Still solidly green. Maybe well SE of DCA towards the bay is where you’ll see the green/yellow line creeping up, but it will be a long time before I-95 and west becomes yellow.
  18. Terpeast
    Backed off to 94 with mid-level clouds rolling in after hitting a high of 98.
  19. Terpeast
    96 imby, dews much higher today at 69
  20. Terpeast
    My yard could really use this
  21. Terpeast
    That’s what I am hoping. I do think we still have some loaded winters coming up
  22. Terpeast
    That line was real. Saw a few raindrops in my morning run. Not even a trace though, just made it even more humid.
  23. Terpeast
    Thanks. sometimes I do wonder if the “tipping point” had already happened after the last super nino, or if we’re just in a down cycle. I still think it’s the latter, but this coming winter should be a good test if the nino plays out as most think it will. But even if we’re in a down cycle now, these kinds of winters will become the norm anyway. Any double digit winter will be a win for this forum.
  24. Terpeast
    Agree, and it’s also not just how strong or deep the trough is, it’s also how strong the accompanying ridge is. I’ve been watching the MA summer here and we’ve had a lot of NW flow due to the persistent central US ridge (which oddly doesn’t show on the map above, but it was there). With all the fires in Canada and extreme heat in the west, a weak or even moderate trough in the east isn’t going to bring much colder temperatures.
  25. Terpeast
    Can confirm. I don’t think I’ve seen an entire summer where IAD constantly beat DCA for daily maxes 97 for the high imby
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