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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?
  2. Terpeast
    CMC also supports this. Still need the euro to get on board, but this is a much needed rain if it verifies
  3. Terpeast
    Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning
  4. Terpeast
    Did not make it to 50 today despite sunshine. 49.8 for the high
  5. Terpeast
    Great work @40/70 Benchmark I enjoyed the read, and thanks for putting so much effort into it. Your dad must have been a great man.
  6. Terpeast
    58 for the high, right on forecast
  7. Terpeast
    Moderate to strong. Not super.
  8. Terpeast
    BWI: 25.9” DCA: 17.2” IAD: 27.8” RIC: 13.0” Tiebreaker SBY: 14.5”
  9. Terpeast
    31 for the low, now 33. Very frosty
  10. Terpeast
    Uh oh, JB is gonna be all over this… https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/travel/worlds-newest-island-forms-in-japanese-archipelago-scn/index.html
  11. Terpeast
    I think we’re going to see crazy swings like this this winter, given all the mixed signals we’re seeing now
  12. Terpeast
    Its a pretty +pdo look
  13. Terpeast
    43, rain Nice to see precip/radar overperforming vs models
  14. Terpeast
    Yeah.. I don’t really follow 850mb wind anoms in the tropics because all the models show something completely different even for the same runs. What gets posted here is often different from what I see on the model sites. So I gave up on following this
  15. Terpeast
    Light rain, 46
  16. Terpeast
    The pacific is much better now than it was a couple months ago. It’s not ideally where we want it to be yet, obviously. But it’s slowly been getting better. If it backtracks in Dec-Jan though, this winter is going to be an uphill battle For now, we’re still in the game.
  17. Terpeast
    Yeah, we don't want to gamble with that over just perturbing the PV. There's little support for a SSW event though, only 4 ensemble members show it
  18. Terpeast
    Only made it to 76 before the clouds moved in from the NW, down to 71 now
  19. Terpeast
    Pretty consistent with my outlook
  20. Terpeast
    Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on
  21. Terpeast
    And that’s not the worst thing. We (well, I) don’t want a super nino. It’s a hit vs miss gamble for one HECS, and if we whiff it’s yet another ratter. Besides the last 3 times we had a super nino, we had triple dip La Ninas right after. So I’m not rooting for a super, personally. And I agree with you that we don’t get there.
  22. Terpeast
    I just think it mostly means we’ve peaked. we’ll see about those wwbs east of the dateline starting nov 15, but hard to say if that will move the needle
  23. Terpeast
    Only made it to 61 today after hitting 77 yesterday
  24. Terpeast
    I don’t know about the NOAA data for real-time monitoring because it’s monthly and I would think there is some kind of lag. I mean if the big pdo rise is not showing in that dataset, it may either mean its a month behind or something isn’t right with their data
  25. Terpeast
    Time sensitive - WCS daily PDO holding at -0.88. Looking at the ensembles, I expect it to hold around there or touch -1 again, then rise after that.
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