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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Luckily my area wasn’t as bad as northern MD, l’ve seen a few trees and a street lamp down in my neighborhood. That’s enough to justify the watch, had the wind been a few mph stronger that might have had been enough to cause a lot more damage
  2. Terpeast
    My hypothesis is that with CC and warmer SSTs overall, ninas will become stronger (relative ONI) while ninos become weaker.
  3. Terpeast
    You've come a long way.
  4. Terpeast
    This winter better deliver, or we’re looking at 3 ratters in a row. I want to be joking, but idk
  5. Terpeast
    Short drive around Ashburn, lots of large tree branches down
  6. Terpeast
    1.03” yesterday, biggest daily rain total since, I dunno… February?
  7. Terpeast
    Obv northern MD along the m/d line got the worst of it. It seems some closer to dc metro reported that it wasn’t much of a storm for them. While I lucked out in that there’s no damage to my property, things did get quite intense for about 10 minutes. See that W just east of Leesburg? I’m right south of that. Total 1.03” today
  8. Terpeast
    Got a good thrashing with maybe 60-65 mph winds with very heavy rain. First severe event imby of the year
  9. Terpeast
    Leesburg being tornado warned ashburn here - very dark clouds, no wind yet. Calm before the ???
  10. Terpeast
    Seeing some weakness in the line directly to the west of me. Is this where I say uh oh, I’m about to get burned again? Then again, the shear and dynamics are so strong that it’s not remotely similar to previous setups
  11. Terpeast
    Some mid-level cloud cover coming in. What's really interesting is the different directions mid vs. low level clouds are moving... the former is moving westerly, and the latter southerly. That's shear.
  12. Terpeast
    Radar already showing storms congealing into a line even before crossing the blue ridge
  13. Terpeast
    I'm looking at that same cell from my window. Cloud top height must be insane if I can see it from this far out.
  14. Terpeast
    Cleared out here. Mostly blue skies now. Ammo is loading as I type
  15. Terpeast
    And the UHC seems to have leveled out at 0.7. New MJJ ONI at 0.8. Models have a 1.7 peak on NDJ, but at the same time the WPAC warm pool is modeled to rewarm to +0.5 to +1. That may pull the forcing west
  16. Terpeast
    That’s a very fast moving line. I better pick up my kid from daycare a bit earlier than usual
  17. Terpeast
    Mostly cloudy with some blue sky in between
  18. Terpeast
    I can’t figure it out. The central US ridge with a NE trough long wave pattern doesn’t seem to work well for us in the immediate lee of the blue ridge/cacotin mtns, but no problem for i-95 and east. And the longer our local drought goes on, the drier our BL gets (even with high dews, they could be mixing out too quickly as soon as outflow winds kick up) which temporarily suppresses lift until things move to the east where there’s more moisture fuel from wetter grounds. May change tomorrow, LWX and SPC have some really strong language about the upcoming threat. Will be tracking, but not in bated breath
  19. Terpeast
    Same. Nothing here. Just some gusty winds. Hopefully tomorrow will be different.
  20. Terpeast
    Pretty thick clouds but nothing on radar. I’ll gladly take a miss today if it means getting hosed down tomorrow, in the literal sense
  21. Terpeast
    He keeps posting the same tweets to argue his points and then attacks anyone who disagrees. It’s getting old fast, and if I were a moderator, he’d be out.
  22. Terpeast
    0.24” last night. Ain’t much but I’ll take it
  23. Terpeast
    Pouring here! What a pleasant surprise
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah, I think this summer has been the haves vs have nots. Some people had their top 10-20 wettest Julys ever, others have been bone dry. I’m on the drier side with just 2.5” for July after 1” months in June and May. Very dry here.
  25. Terpeast
    It’s only a matter of time before we start seeing heat advisories in February
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