Terpeast

I can’t figure it out. The central US ridge with a NE trough long wave pattern doesn’t seem to work well for us in the immediate lee of the blue ridge/cacotin mtns, but no problem for i-95 and east. And the longer our local drought goes on, the drier our BL gets (even with high dews, they could be mixing out too quickly as soon as outflow winds kick up) which temporarily suppresses lift until things move to the east where there’s more moisture fuel from wetter grounds. May change tomorrow, LWX and SPC have some really strong language about the upcoming threat. Will be tracking, but not in bated breath

Same. Nothing here. Just some gusty winds. Hopefully tomorrow will be different.

Pretty thick clouds but nothing on radar. I’ll gladly take a miss today if it means getting hosed down tomorrow, in the literal sense

He keeps posting the same tweets to argue his points and then attacks anyone who disagrees. It’s getting old fast, and if I were a moderator, he’d be out.

0.24” last night. Ain’t much but I’ll take it

Pouring here! What a pleasant surprise

Yeah, I think this summer has been the haves vs have nots. Some people had their top 10-20 wettest Julys ever, others have been bone dry. I’m on the drier side with just 2.5” for July after 1” months in June and May. Very dry here.

It’s only a matter of time before we start seeing heat advisories in February

Low of 57

Makes sense

Have we had a nino with a split forcing scenario before?

Doesn't surprise me, because these things take time. La Nina atmospheric state doesn't suddenly turn El Nino on a dime any more than an oil tanker can.

July total: 2.52” High: 99.5 Low: 61.0

Cool out, low 60s. Smoky skies aloft though

Nice look. Worth noting 72-73 had that big snowstorm in the south (GA/SC/E NC) and near normal DJF temps. So I wouldn’t kick that analog out of bed. The MA was just unlucky that year. 1991-92 might have gotten ruined by pinatubo

Nice day to cap July, which averaged 91/69 at KIAD (exact mean 80.1)

You watched Manifest, too?

Given how dry it has been for loudoun, it wasn’t a surprise that IAD would go higher than sites to the east. imby I got 98/99/97 with the highest HI of 112-115, and after today’s storm, the dew point jumped to 82.

Picked up almost 0.3”. Can’t complain given how fast moving this line was.

Finally got a good thrashing. About damn time. It was short lived and I probably didn’t get a huge qpf, but it was nice to not get shortchanged for once.

Cu field overhead now, mostly cloudy. Think 97 will be the high for me today

97/74, HI 108. Still full sun, with some cu building to the NW

Yep, broken clock

Yeah, we can’t know for sure. But sticking with persistence works until it doesn’t. And for now, it’s still working, at least for mby. 94/75, heat advisory criteria verified with a HI of 106. EDIT: Now 96/76, HI 110

If we extrapolate two linear trend lines, one from may 1 and another from june 16, and assume a november peak, we’ll top out at 1.8-1.9. I’ll go conservative and predict a 1.6-1.7 OND peak.