Terpeast

Gotcha, thanks. I’m exploring various enso-related indices and like you said, it is a lot of work. With my day job not related to met and raising a kid, I might just go with the MEI for my research/2024 winter outlook and call it a day.

Got just 0.1” yesterday. I expect actual highs to overperform forecasts as has been the trend all July. May even hit 100 while wetter locations top out at 98 this week.

Why do you think the cold subsurface correlates so well with a -PNA? There’s no forcing mechanism originating from 100-200m under water. Maybe it is because of stronger trades (in spite of +enso) creating upwelling in the central pacific, raising the thermocline locally, and this wind field is what actually correlates (or maybe contributes) to -pna? Curious to hear your thoughts.

I can confirm. Lawn makes it look like I live in Arizona, not Virginia. Few trees here and there are yellowing/browning prematurely. Too soon.

It also raises the question of whether wwbs actually drive nino development, or is actually the other way around. Maybe both. But this year it might be that the warm water in the east eventually migrates west, and only then the trades weaken and/or wwbs occur.

Yeah, I've been consistently hitting 90+ most of July here. The last couple of days were the only negative departures of the month. With the incoming heat, July looks to finish at a 91 average high

I’m not sure this really tells us much except that the planet has a whole has been warming regardess of enso state. I’m not a fan of comparisons using X years “minus” Y years, especially if all the X years are recent and the Y years are pre CC, except when you’re trying to show that CC has happened and by how much. EDIT: Please know that I’m not trying to put your work down, you do great analyses and your research is top notch. It’s just that my own research also shows a 4 F increase in my area over the last 50-60 years without taking into account enso state.

Its one of them, yeah. Other analogs I like include 72-73 and 91-92. But we have to adjust these analogs to a new climate base state. I will do so for my next winter outlook, and show how I did it.

What is the JMA predicting as the peak and when?

Heat advisories probably

If the stratosphere retains more vapor than usual, I’d expect it to have a warming effect given that its a potent greenhouse gas. A warmer polar stratosphere may result in a more persistent -ao/-nao, but if strat vapor content is evenly distributed across all latitudes and both hemispheres, then it may not matter as the whole world warms even more.

Speaking for the MA forum, that’s what we want (west lean forcing). We haven’t had a good track record with east based

Nearest station recorded only 4.13” since May 1 in my location (ashburn). Jan-mar was 9.77”. Big hole to dig out of. Yeah.

I’m behind that line and the dews are in low-mid 60s. But it’s not bad at all. It’s not like last week when I start sweating as soon as I step out the door

0.6” here. Nice!

It was strong. 1991-92 is low end strong, 2009-10 is high end moderate. A bit misleading, though

Hopefully not as bad as the first time. But every time we get sustained NW flow, we’ll get some of it at least until fall.

May be short lived. All ens still show a central/west ridge with a downstream trough in the east. CFS weeklies has it all the way through end of aug

Spoke too soon, nearest station 1/4 mile from me reported 0.37” total this morning. I’ll take it.

Agreed. The gold standard would be to re-run models with initializations going back to 1950 adjusted to today’s climate, and somehow not allow the models to not revert to the previous climate state. That way it incorporates all (well, most not all) non-linear processes, but that takes enormous resources that I and most of us don’t have.

Picked up 0.2”

Yeah, my lawn is 80% brown. I may have to water my dogwood tree soon, I don’t want it to die.

Yeah, such a small difference in temps would result in a drastically different outcome. As said in the MA subforum, I’m working on a project to clarify what we can expect in future winters by adjusting historical analogs to today’s climate. I still need to get it across the finish line, but my prelim hypothesis is that we’ll lose previous 32-33F storms to rain in new climate, while other (colder) storms would be even more juiced. Feb 87 is the biggest “loss” because it won’t take much to flip the whole thing to rain all the way to the mountains. Otoh, pd1 79 and feb 83 would produce astounding totals if they happened today in a warmer climate. I’m talking widespread 30” with a 40”+ jackpot potentially

While we would most likely lose the Feb 87 paste bomb were it to happen today in this climate, I would roll the dice with 86-87 any day.

Same. I wasn’t supposed to hit 90 or above here today. Got up to 92